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I. Main macroeconomic challenges in the Russian economy
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Volvich Leonid, group 505
List of literature
1. David Willetts, Vince Cable, Innovation and research strategy for growth, 2011.
2. VitalyTupchienko, MACROECONOMIC CONTROL OF INNOVATION ACTIVITY, Change of Leader, VECTOR OF CHANGE, pp. 42-49, 2015.
3. Xu Jiuping, Yao Liming, Lu Yi, Innovative Approaches Towards Low Carbon Economics, Regional Development Cybernetics, 2014.
4. Frederic S. Mishkin, Simulation Methodology in Macroeconomics: An Innovation Technique, The University of Chicago Press, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 87, No. 4 (Aug., 1979), pp. 816-836.
5. Hulya Ulku, R&D, Innovation, and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis, IMF Working Paper, Research Department, September 2004.
1. David Willetts, Vince Cable, Innovation and research strategy for growth, 2011.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/32450/11-1387-innovation-and-research-strategy-for-growth.pdf
Abstract: The art focuses on recent results from innovation economics, recent policy-related studies, and new innovation data. Whilst innovation is the central source of economic growth, it is also changing its scope and forms. This article Investigates innovation as a system and looks at policy challenges of facilitating to social capital flows, maintaining a high-grade quality of infrastructure, supporting business investment in conditions of uncertainty, and building an innovation public sector.
2. VitalyTupchienko, MACROECONOMIC CONTROL OF INNOVATION ACTIVITY, Change of Leader, VECTOR OF CHANGE, pp. 42-49, 2015.
http://www.inesnet.ru/article/makroekonomicheskoe-regulirovanie-innovacionnoj-deyatelnosti/
Abstract: The article presents the macroeconomic regulation as a method of economic management, where the control center — the state does not need to study and to evaluate any slightest impact on the system, to give indications to the system elements how to react to it. The paper analyzes major challenges associated with implementation of innovation potential. The main trends of developing innovation potential of Russia are described.
3. Xu Jiuping, Yao Liming, Lu Yi, Innovative Approaches Towards Low Carbon Economics, Regional Development Cybernetics, 2014.
http://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783642454288
Abstract: A “hybrid” is introduced to provide an innovative, trans-disciplinary approach to low carbon economics, including aspects such as control, learning, cognition, adaptation and emergence.A series of successful application cases have been predicted for regional low carbon development and many useful policy recommendations are also provided by practical research, helping policymakers to draw up plans for regional low carbon development.
4. Frederic S. Mishkin, Simulation Methodology in Macroeconomics: An Innovation Technique, The University of Chicago Press, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 87, No. 4 (Aug., 1979), pp. 816-836.
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http://www.jstor.org/stable/1831009?seq=1 - fndtn-page_thumbnails_tab_contents
Abstract: This paper discusses a simulation procedure where innovations from time-series processes are used in conducting simulation experiments with macroeconometric models. A particular theoretical example using the term structure of interest rates is studied here, along with actual simulation experiments using a large macroeconometric model. This analysis illustrates the advantages of simulating with innovations and the extent to which more standard simulation procedures lead to misleading results. The innovation-simulation technique can be used to provide information on the response of the economy to shocks, even when the macroeconometric model is not invariant to policy changes. Policymakers might find such information to be quite valuable.
5. Hulya Ulku, R&D, Innovation, and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis, IMF Working Paper, Research Department, September 2004.
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2004/wp04185.pdf
Abstract: This paper investigates the main postulations of the R&D based growth models that innovation is created in the R&D sectors and it enables sustainable economic growth, provided that there are constant returns to innovation in terms of R&D. The analysis employs various panel data techniques and uses patent and R&D data for 20 OECD and 10 Non-OECD countries for the period 1981–97. The results suggest a positive relationship between per capita GDP and innovation in both OECD and non-OECD countries, while the effect of R&D stock on innovation is significant only in the OECD countries with large markets. Although these results provide support for endogenous growth models, there is no evidence for constant returns to innovation in terms of R&D, implying that innovation does not lead to permanent increases in economic growth. However, these results do not necessarily suggest a rejection of R&D based growth models, given that neither patent nor R&D data capture the full range of innovation and R&D activities.
Rationale
This research will analyze new effective methods of macroeconomic regulation for using in Russia. The object of the research consists in looking into innovation methods in macroeconomic regulation and their efficiency in the Russian economy. The purpose of this research is to prove the failure of the current macroeconomic policy and necessity for a new approach in regulation methods in Russia. This study presents a new system of macroeconomic organization with its own principles of operation and innovate methods of regulation of the economy. Modern macroeconomic instruments which are presented in the research can promote more efficiency of the Russian economy, its development and help to prevent domestic market instability as a result of world shocks.
Relevance of this theme is associated with recent policy challenges for Russia. This is about western sanctions, policy troubles with Ukraine and oil shocks. Also, it is important to say that Russia lags behind in development compared to western countries. So only a new approach to macroeconomic regulation can solve problem.
Glossary
approach
Capital flow
carbon economics
competitiveness
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dynamics models
Economic growth
Economic management
economic prediction
emerging technologies
employed
forgone consumption
generalized method of moment (GMM)
growth model
human capital
implementation of strategies
industrial chains
Innovation potential
Innovation processes
innovation sector
innovative economies
interest rates
intermediate goods
know-how
macroeconometric model
macroeconomic instruments
подход
движение капитала
углеродная экономика
конкурентоспособность
динамические модели
Экономический рост
Управление экономикой
экономическое прогнозирование
новые технологии
Частный предприниматель
упущенное потребление
обобщенный метод моментов (GMM)
модель роста
человеческий капитал
осуществление стратегий
промышленные цепи
Инновационный потенциал
Инновационные процессы
инновационный сектор
инновационная экономика
процентные ставки
промежуточные товары
секрет производства
макроэконометрическая модель
макроэкономические инструменты
Macroeconomic regulation
macroeconomic standard
main trends
market incentives
monopoly
national assets
panel data
paradigm
per capita
policy changes
premises
promote innovation
quantificational methods
R&D, patents
removing barriers
response to shocks
simulation experiments
sustainable
term structure
The innovation-simulation technique
theoretical example
time-series processes
to be nonrival
total factor productivity
uncertain
Макроэкономическое регулирование
макроэкономический стандарт
Основные тенденции
рыночные стимулы
монополия
национальные активы
панельные данные
парадигма
на душу населения
изменения в политике
предпосылки
способствовать внедрению инноваций
квантификационные методы
R & D, патенты
устранение барьеров
ответ на шоки
имитационные эксперименты
устойчивый
Временная структура
Методика инновационного моделирования
теоретический пример
Процессы временных рядов
быть неконкурентными
совокупная производительность факторов
неуверенный
Plan
I. Main macroeconomic challenges in the Russian economy
A. Russian macroeconomic policy
B. Macroeconomic problems of Russia
C. Ways of solution to Russian economic challenges
II. Innovation, as a way to overcome the backwardness of the Russian economy
A. Innovation sector in the structure of the Russian economy
B. Modernization of the innovation sector
III. Transition of the Russian economy to an innovative way of development.
A. Prospects of this way of development in the Long term
B. Conclusion
I. Main macroeconomic challenges in the Russian economy
A. Russian macroeconomic policy
The framework of Russian macroeconomic policy nowadays are oil and other natural resources. Russia is one of the world leaders in the production and export of resources. All this is possible thanks to the huge resource base, which the Russian Federation owns and operates. This type of policy helps the country to survive and even compete on an equal footing with other global players for decades.
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B. Macroeconomic problems of Russia
1. The population is becoming impoverished faster than before
Compared to the recent crises in the Russian economy, the population is getting poorer much faster this time. By year-end 2015, the amount of goods purchased by Russians had decreased by 10 percent.
Even during the most serious crisis in the modern history of the country – in 1998 – this figure (final consumption of households) fell by only 5 percent, and by 4 percent after the global financial crisis in 2009.
There is also another reason why the population is running out of money. Businesses are deliberately reducing wages in order to increase their own profits. In 2015, nominal wages grew by 4.6 percent, while company profits increased by an average of 49 percent. One of the reasons for this is the lack of effective trade unions to defend the rights of workers in Russia.
2. A free-floating exchange rate leads to inflation
In 2014, Russia moved to a free-floating exchange rate, making the Russian currency value market-determined.
During this time, the ruble has fallen against the U.S. dollar and the euro by 60 percent; in addition, the value of the ruble is affected by fluctuations in oil prices. As a result, the ruble may fall or grow by 20 percent in one month. Possible rate shifts are included in the price of all contracts in the country.
Economists estimate that the instability of the currency provides an annual inflation of 7 percent. For comparison, at the end of 2015, inflation in Russia amounted to 15.5 percent.
In this situation, interest rates on bank loans, including those for the purchase of equipment, cannot be lower than 15-20 percent. It turns out that businesses just cannot afford to buy new equipment and expand production – and this is another big issue.
3. Companies are not buying new equipment
Compared to the crisis of 2008-2009, the figures for GDP and various industries in Russia at year-end 2015 did not show a catastrophic decline.
For example, GDP declined by 3.7 percent compared to 7.9, the volume of construction fell by 7 percent compared to 16 percent, while the figures for railway freight have not changed at all.
According to economists, the bad news is that indicators that determine future economic growth – primarily investments – fell much more. Investment in fixed assets fell by 8 percent, while the import of equipment from abroad has decreased by as much as 38 percent.
As a result, equipment on average sees use of 14 years in Russia compared to seven years in the West, and about 20 percent of machines are way beyond their expected lifetime and may be discarded at any moment.
Even the country's wealthiest customers – oil and gas companies – are reducing their investment programs.
According to estimates by researcher Abel Aganbegyan, at a price of $35 per barrel, oil companies' investments will decrease by 20 percent, while the Gazprom gas monopoly may postpone investments in the Power of Siberia pipeline, designed to carry gas from Russia to China.
4. Hopes for Chinese investment fail to materialize
Yes, in spite of all the bold political proclamations, Chinese investments have yet to arrive on the Russian market.
In fact, some investors from China have even begun to withdraw funds from Russia. On Feb. 4, China's Chengdong Investment Corp. decided to sell its stake in the Moscow stock exchange.
The Chinese may be replaced by investors from India; in its time, the USSR implemented a number of investment projects with India.
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But what is most likely is an inflow of funds from Western capital markets. Many European countries have negative interest rates, meaning that money is almost worthless within the country, and investors are being forced to seek projects abroad.
Russian borrowers, including the government, have always been disciplined and have typically paid their debts on time.
It is no coincidence that, on Feb. 7, the Russian Finance Ministry sent proposals for the possible issuance of Eurobonds in 2016 to 25 foreign banks. The last time that Russia borrowed from the international markets was in Sept. 2013, when it sold $6 billion worth of bonds
C. Ways of solution to Russian economic challenges
Russian GDP is forecast to decline again in 2016, though expectations regarding the severity of contraction vary from less than 1% to nearly 4%. Russian monetary authorities have indicated willingness to focus policy on offering relief from inflation, but popular and political pressure exists to ease interest rates in an attempt to catalyze economic growth. Russian consumers should expect continued pressure on employment and wages driven by continued low oil prices and structural issues, while the Russian government has to assess the severity of output contraction relative to the fiscal and monetary risks associated with recession curtailment measures.
Inflation and rising consumer goods prices have negatively impacted on households, and this will continue to plague the Russian economy in 2016. Rapid inflation has also limited the policy measures available to Russian monetary authorities. Reducing interest rates is a common policy response to recession conditions, which creates incentive for investment and job creation but also leads to inflation. With inflation rising about 15% in 2015, the Russian central bank was unable to sustain the currency valuation strategies employed to stimulate the economy. Russian consumers will be likely to continue to see purchasing power erode, even if inflation is reduced from its high levels. The Russian government will have to closely monitor the success of its more restrictive monetary moves while ensuring interest rates are not too high to encourage growth.
Numerous factors have combined to limit investor confidence in Russia. Concerns over corruption and ease of doing business have historically kept some investors from dealing with Russian assets, though improving reporting standards and legal structures have helped to assuage these fears in recent years. Other observers suggest private property rights, especially those pertaining to intellectual property, are insufficient to attract capital inflows in the same magnitude of the most developed economies, but this stigma cannot be deemed universal. These issues aside, political turmoil has caused capital flight as the conflict with the Ukraine and Turkey have dissuaded investors from dealing with Russian companies. Access to global capital markets is important for the financial stability of large companies, so Russian policy makers must be mindful of their reputation in the eyes of capital allocators around the world.
II. Innovation, as a way to overcome the backwardness of the Russian economy
A. The innovation sector in the structure of the Russian economy
1. Human potential is one of the Russia’s still preserved competitive advantages. World’s top in overall literacy and basic education (#1 in PIRLS 2006 test). Over 23% of the population has a university degree. Technical and natural science education in Russia (and USSR) has traditionally been place among the world’s strongest. However, the quality of higher eduction has been decreasing in the last few years, caused mostly by chronic underfinancing. The situation is improving now, but Russia still lags in education expenditures (4% of GDP), compared not only to developed (over 5% of GDP) but also to many developing countries. Another important issue is serious weakness in personal qualities that are crucial for innovative entrepreneurship, such as: entrepreneurial spirit; desire for lifelong learning; mobility; risk acceptance – still rare among russians in post-comunistic era.
2. Business:
Business openness towards innovations is low: less than 10% of Russian companies make direct investments in R&D and innovations (compared to 70% in Germany). Less than 12% invest in contracting innovations from external markets. Overall business expenditures for R&D and innovations (about 1% of GDP) are low compared not only to 3-5% in world’s leading economies, but also to 1,5-2,5% in many of developing countries. Only 3 Russian companies are present in the global list of 1000 companies making biggest expenditures for R&D and innovation, with Gazprom (Russia’s top) placed 108th with 0,6% of revenue spent on R&D. This situation is complicated by structural and organizational limitations preventing companies from active utilization and management of innovations. In WEF “index of companies ability to adapt new technologies” Russia ranks 41 out of 133, along with countries like UAE or Cyprus. Passive innovation (adopting of existing technologies) is still the most widespread type of behaviour among Russian companies (34%), whilst only 16% are radical innovators developing their own advanced technologies. Share of Russian innovative products on global markets is consistently less than 0,5% (compared to 16% and 14% of China and US). The country’s strongest positions there are non-electric machinery (2%); chemicals (0,8%) and aerospace technology (0,4%).
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3. Science
Russia is in top 10 countries for overall R&D expenditures (Euro 4bln in 2010) but is significantly behind leading countries when it is taken as % of GDP (1,3% in 2010). Russia is only behind China, US and Japan in absolute quantity of scientific personnel (400 thousand). However, proportion of scientists in the overall number of employed places Russia in the 3rd dozen of the world list. An increase in state R&D expenditures and a decrease in scientific personnel in recent years have resulted in significant growth in relative R&D expenditures per one researcher (USD 60 thousand in 2009). Despite many Russian researchers developing successful carriers abroad, realtive weight of Russia in the overall number of international scientific publications is between Brazil and the Netherlands (about 2,5%). A relative amount of researchers and expenditures per one internationally ranked scientific paper (16 researchers and $850 thousand) is much higher than in developed countries and has been increasing in recent years.
4. State
Government model is overall “non-innovative” and so far has not achieved significant results in establishing innovative climate in the country. This is demonstrated by a low level of R&D financing,
inadequate development of public-private partnership models; inadequate support to innovative SMEs (about $110 mln, annualy). Existing public procurement system hampers innovative products/services entry to government contracts system. State repressive overregulation of entrepreneurial activites is even more harmful for innovative business. Doing Business ranking placed Russia 130th out of 183 countries. Overall tax pressure has increased lately after switching from unified social tax to insurance taxes. Meanwhile, there are innovations happening in some spheres of governmental acivities such as electronic government and electronic public services.
5. Infrastructure
In the last 10 years Russian government has been investing intensively into both soft and hard infrustructure, establishing so-called institutes of development of the Russian innovative economy (funding), about 200 technoparks and business incubators, 100 centers of technology transfer, 4 special economic zones with special tax and customs regime, Skolkovo project, etc. However, the efficiency of the infractructure is so far low, primarily due to countrie’s poor natural business demand for innovations.
B. Modernization of the innovation sector
1) Innovative economy needs “innovative class” orineted towards not only consumption but also generation of innovations. The task here is radical enlargement of innovative entrepreneurs class, public advocacy for startupers risk-taking behaviour and innonvation business activities throughout lifetime learning. Provision of necessary education and skills to inoculate modern innovative behavioral patterns.
2) Drastic change in business perception and demand for innovations. Companies should consider innovation not as an obligation or “hobby” but as an integral part of their business activity, vital for ensuring future competitiveness, efficiency and leadership.
3) Making the State more innovative itself. This includes wide introduction of modern ICT technologies in governmental operations and services (electronic government). Utilization of the public procurement system for stimulation of innovations. Establishment of an “innovation climate” – conditions and incentives to stimulate companies and individuals to innovate.
4) Formation of a balanced, sustainable R&D sector of the economy that has an optimal structure ensuring contunious production of globally competitive knowledge. Radical improvement of an infrastructure ensuring commercialization of R&D results.
5) Increasing openess of national innovation ecosystem and innovation economy, enlarging integration of Russia into global innovation process, boost of international collaborations.
III. Transition of the Russian economy to an innovative way of development.
A. Prospects of this way of development in the Long term
1) 2011-2013. Maximal utilization of the world’s standards and best practices in education will support creation of a new innovative class. Stimulation of international and domestic mobility of students, researchers and academic staff. Hi-tech business involvement in development of educational programs. Increased level of sensitivity to innovations from Russian business and economy overall. The task will be fulfilled through: govermental-induced capital flow into innovation intensive economy sectors; stimulation of innovative activities of state-owned corps; direct funding (grants and
loans) to innovative SMEs; fiscal stimulation of innovative business activity; development of overall competition level; development of ppp models and mechanisms; removal of state overregulation (technical, customs and tax) opressing hi-tech business; creation of “competence centers” to generate and commercialize knowledge; pilot projects in russian regions; formation of industry clusters and technology platforms. Skolkovo project (zero income and property tax, 0% VAT, social insurance tax – 14% for resident companies).
2) 2014 - 2020. This stage is characterized by the increase in the private share in an overall amount of investments made into R&D. On the public side, more emphasis will be given to further development of the elements of innovation infrastructure and increase of their efficiency. Formation of integral, relevant and functional national innovation ecosystem shall be completed. Increasing state support will be provided to promotion of Russian innovative products and services to global markets, including financial (loans, state guarantees) and consulting services. Budgetary spendings are now more focused on the areas of the most promising new technologies and on big targeted technological progams, supported by continuously increasing share of non-budgetary funding.
Key Indicators targeted:
| Performance | |||
| Education coverage in 5-14 y.o. group, % | |||
| Average teacher salary in % to country’s average wage | |||
| Share of involved in lifetime learning process in 25-64 y.o. group, % | |||
| Number of patent applications per 10 000 inhabitants | |||
| Number of innovative industrial technologies created | |||
| Innovation expenses share in GDP, % | 1,4 | 2,5 | |
| Share of cutting edge hi-tech equipment not more than 8 y.o. in overall amount of R&D equipment, % | |||
| Share of innovative goods in services in overall goods exported, % | |||
| Amount of nanotechnology-related goods and services, bln of euro | 8,7 | ||
| Share of companies employing technology innovations, % | |||
| Amount of innovative SMEs, formed as spin-offs from universities and public research organizations | |||
| Number of working in R&D per 10 000 employed | |||
| Average age of a researcher | |||
| Share of governmental expenses in R&D, % | |||
| Russian share in overall world amount of scientific publications, % (acc. to Web of science) | 2,5 |
FinNode Russia | www.finnode.fi | 197198 St.Petersburg, pr.Dobrolyubova, 8, office 500 | Email: [email protected]
| Place of Russia in information society development world ratings | |||
| Share of organizations and companies with broadband internet access, % | |||
| Share of companies and organizations with own websites, % | |||
| Share of households with internet access, % | |||
| Share of population utilizing internet to access governmental services, % |
| Financials, % of GDP | |||
| Internal expenditures for R&D | 1,3 | 1,5 | 2,4 |
| Governmental expenditures for non-military R&D | 0,88 | 0,9 | 1,1 |
| Internal expenditures for education | 4,8 | 5,6 | 7,0 |
| State expenditures for education | 4,0 | 6,0 |
| Financials, blns of euro | |||
| Governmental university funding | 0,4 | 0,4 | 0,6 |
| Funding to attract of international level scientists | 0,08 | 0,1 | 0,25 |
| State funding to applied research and IPR commercialization | 0,7 | 1,8 | 3,6 |
| State funding to basic research | 0,5 | 2,9 | 3,9 |
| State funding to innovation infrastructure development (incl. Skolkovo) | 0,5 | 0,6 | 1,5 |
B. ConclusIon
Despite recent governmental efforts, trends towards innovative development of Russian economy are yet to be settled. The critical problem is to create grounds and incentives for innovative development of all parties of the economy, to increase cooperation of business and public research, benefiting from existing and developing infrastructure. During the past three years, there have been two contradictory trends in Russian innovation policy: the reduced capacity of the state to finance innovation, and the growing number of priority measures in which the government should be involved.
Measures already been taken have not been cancelled, despite the fact that some reformatting of coordination structures at the federal level has been performed, and new approaches have been developed, especially the ones that involve direct state participation (both through development institutions, and by supporting priority areas and technologies).
It is now apparent that the policy is to search for and develop new markets. An attempt is being made to replace the technocratic approach, which has dominated for many years, with a market approach, and to shift from technology proposals to identifying areas of demand.
The prospects for the development of innovation in Russia depend on government’s ability to correctly prioritize the areas it will support, on its capacity to identify not eye- catching and prestigious projects, but projects that are useful to society and which will have a significant impact. The second factor affecting the prospects is the ability to develop international cooperation not only in science but also in the development of new technologies at the pre-competitive stage.
FinNode Russia | www.finnode.fi | 197198 St.Petersburg, pr.Dobrolyubova, 8, office 500 | Email: [email protected]
FinNode Russia | www.finnode.fi | 197198 St.Petersburg, pr.Dobrolyubova, 8, office 500 | Email: [email protected]
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