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Principles of geopolitical modeling
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INTRODUCTION
The recent World became more and more complex object because of globalization process. This leads to difficulties in decision making on all decision levels from peoples to leaderships and governments. One of the questions of primary interest is future World order. There exist many subproblems in future geopolitics: one pole, many pole or distributed power, origin of new collective security organizations, the consequences of such actions as war in Persia galf, Cosovo crisis, choice of oil transportation way in Caspy region and many others.. Recently there are also a lot of questions posed by NATO enlargement.
In such situation the past experience of presidents, diplomats, experts on foreign relations is insufficient. In case of such large object as recent society one of the useful tools for understanding their properties are system analysis. Recent system analysis gives global point of view on considered object as the whole. Current system analysis incorporates achievements of cybernetics, informatics, synergetic, philosophy, biology, sociology, politology and so on. System analysis gives also practical tools for investigations, modeling and improving operating of large social systems. Till now there are many applications of system analysis as to social problems as more particular to foreign relations. But many important and principal problems were unresolved.
Fortunately globalization of recent society not only overcomplicate the society behavior. Our investigation led us to the conclusion that now society has new property - associative memory type behavior. The society can exist in small number of stable states with transition from one state to another in historical process [1-3]. The examples of such states of society are civilizations described by A.Toynby, C.Hantington or formations in Marxist's investigations. In our approach the civilizations are the stable state of global culture of society. In such case the global culture of society is understand as all-material and mental achievements of society.
Geopolitical relations are the part of society. Now all countries involved in global international community. In this community all have relations. This leads to existing associative memory property also in system of international relations.
Establishing such property allows us to develop the new methodology for considering as global as local geopolitical problems.
PRINCIPLES OF GEOPOLITICAL MODELING
As recognized the modeling is the part of decision support systems. There are many subjects for modeling now and in this report it is considered mainly the problems connected to geopolitics. There are some results and prospects of realization global models of entirely new type (developed since 1992 by A. Makarenko [1-3]), to the region of geopolitics. Implementations of computer programs to geopolitics were made in Dept. MMSA of IPSA of Ukraine. The models are of neuronet type and may have many consequences for traditional problems in diplomacy, politics, sociology and so on.
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There are some characteristic scales in geopolitical prognosis problems. Most global is the scale where the all countries in the World constitute complex system with many interconnections. The Europe is only the subregion of World community. Many subregions may be also in subregion Europe.
Let us describe the global principles of geopolitical modeling. For more details see [4-6]. Each countries described or by one parameter - power of state (as analogies of R. Kline) or by vector of parameters (economic, political, military, demography and so on). Remark that the power of country is the projection of real power on the block power. So if the state is large but has a little influence on another states, than the power takes zero.
The next elements of model are the connections between the states (the scalar value for scalar model or the vector of bounds in vector models). There are the two ways of evaluation of connections. On first way experts on foreign relations evaluate bounds. On second way there exists the strong mathematical formulas for bounds evaluation. The essential components of neuronet type models are learning procedure. In our case the learning images are some stable patterns in geopolitical relations in Europe. There are three more or less stable patterns conventionally marked as 1914, 1939, 1990 year situations (reconstructed from bounds and from the datum by Hand- Books on second World War, Encyclopedia Britannica, Big Soviet Encyclopedia, C.Bennet& R.Axelrod, R.Trubaychyk and so on and consideration of author). It is very important that the learning procedure implicitly take into account the notion of global culture of society as described in papers [1-3]. In particular all prehistory of foreign relations also present implicitly in model. That is past power of countries, their blocks, mentality of peoples and lieders are represented in models.
After the finding of connections and initial situations on geopolitics (say for Europe the situation after the USSR broken) the by special type formulas calculate the dynamics of interrelations and the next stable state in geopolitics. These formulas take into account the mean field influence from surrounding countries and culture as collective memory in systems. From computer calculation we can see that Ukraine have a neutral status between NATO and Russia. Remark that this configuration exist in many variants of calculations. This is because of balance of forces from surrounding on Ukraine. This balance coursed the series of steps in Ukraine policy in both (NATO and Russia) directions, which neutralized each other. It should mentioned that if the inertia parameter in model (which described the possibility of countries change the state) decreased than there is possible stable situation in Europe remembered the "MittelEurope" configuration with two blocks - around Germany and of Antante type. The model also may incorporate the changeable bounds, another initial conditions, and subdivisions on blocks and different structures of collective security systems. For example from the model it is easy understand the recent treaty between Russia and China as simple reaction of Russia on decreasing of connections of East European countries, attracting Austria to NATO and Belarussia to Russia. Calculation also displays as possible strong consolidation of enlarged NATO in one block with neutral or familiar with neutral states for former USSR countries. This is because the neutral state is hardly changeable. But if initial state of former USSR countries become more remote from neutrality than it may follows the strongest polarization in future Europe but with enlarge NATO. Also on the base of model we can calculate the vector of forces acted on unique country, new blocks of countries and so on.
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SOME FURTHER PROBLEMS
Thus in subsection 2 of this paper are described models and results on some geopolitical prognoses. Such approach allows also solving many problems in informational support for foreign (and internal) affaires on governmental level. It is well known that now NATO also is very complex organization with hierarchical structures in many levels [7]. There are many informational problems as to the structure on NATO organization as with negotiation, treatises, military power evaluation and so on. We only enumerate briefly some of the future problems for solutions by this approach.
The first package of problems consists in expert evaluations of country states, bounds between states and possible blocks collective security structure. Remark that the blocks may be defined by the clasterization procedure (see [6]). The proposed approach then permit to calculate the relatively force of different blocks and countries. Such evaluation may be useful in negotiation on military problems on disarmament, or form example on the Black Sea Fleet division. This approach is especially suitable for evaluation of military power for the countries with different army structures. Also the problem of arm forces within the country may also be solved in this approach.
The second class of problem is the problems of optimal structure of organizations (particularly for NATO). The way to considering such problems is discussed in [8,9]. Such approach is easy adjusted to the problem of different unions and to the international economical theory and practice. Moreover, the global ecological problems also may be considered in such frames (Makarenko, 1997). As the simplest application the models can evaluate the influence of future collective security system on ecological pollution in Europe.
It is supposed that all such problems should be conceded on the unified for all European countries technical bases as hardware as software. Firstly all data may by integrated in unique database system. The tools for communication may be the computer networks as INTERNET and common graphical tool say as MAPINFO. In Ukraine such unified database is created among others in the "Intellectual Systems GEO Ltd" (ISGEO). For final maps are drawing in MAPINFO system with the assistance IS GEO. The author thanks them for assistance. Author also grateful to S.Levkov, V.Melnik, A.Vlasuk for collaboration and to K.Laskavenko for the helping in creations some computer programs.
References
1. V.Danilenko, V.Korolevich, A.Makarenko, V.Xrischenuk Selforganization in strongly nonequilibria media. Kiev, Geophisical Institute, 1992. 144 p.
2. A.Makarenko Model for the global Socio- Economical Problems. Basic Principles. Preprint. Kiev, KPI. 1993.40p.(in Russian)
3. A.Makarenko About the models of Global Socio- Economic processe. Proceed.of Ukrain Acad.of Sci.,1994. #12.p.85-87. (in Russian).
4. S.Levkov, A.Makarenko, V.Melnik, A.Vlasuk Towards the system analysis of geopolitical relations. In: Stochastic problems of optimization and safety theory. Kiev, In-t. of
Cybernetics, 1994.p. 68- 77. (in Russian).
5. S.Levkov, A.Makarenko Geopolitical relations in post USSR Europe as a subject of mathjematical modeling and control. Proceed. 7 IFAC/IFORS/IMACS Symposium: Large scales Systems. L.UK:, Vol.2, 1995. p.983-987.
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6. A.Dobronogov, S.Levkov, A.Makarenko, D.Nikshich, M.Plostak. Associative memory approach to modeling geopolitical structures. //World Congress on Neural Networks, San- Diego, California, 1996. Proceed., 1996. p.749-752.
7. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization. How it works. Brussels. NATO Office of information and press, 1996. 15 p.
8. A.Makarenko Toward The Possible Origin Of Life- Cycles Phenomenon in Global Socio- Economical and Organizational System. Proceed. of Int. Conf. Life- cycle approaches to producting systems: Management, Control, Supervision. Budapest, July 1997.
9. S.Levkov, A.Makarenko 1998 Geopolitical Relations in Post USSR Europe as a subject of mathematical modeling and control; Prepr. IFAC Conference on Supplementary Ways for Improving International Stability, Sinaia, Romania, 1998. pp.89- 94.
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