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Fig. 3 World map of future water vulnerabilities.
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Indirectly due to climate change, regions reliant on groundwater sources might also experience problems, as water for recharging aquifers dwindles. Additionally, many aquifers are being mined for water at an unsustainable rate. A decline in water resources could create waves of instability in both natural and human systems, impacting agriculture and food security, ecosystems and biodiversity, human health, settlements and infrastructure, the economy, sanitation, and of course the water supply.
In addition to effects on natural systems, like increased run-off or soil erosion, climate change will stress food security in the human system. Agricultural productivity is very sensitive to seasonal heat, and sub-tropical areas are expected to receive much less precipitation. As extremes become the norm by the next century - which has a greater than 90% chance of occurring in the sub-tropics and tropics, vulnerable communities will be hard pressed to achieve or maintain food security. Because climate change affects regions disproportionately, the average temperature during growing season will likely exceed the historic extremes in semi-arid regions like the Sahel.
The task of protecting and improving human health becomes increasingly unwieldy as ranges for vectors that carry diseases like malaria and dengue fever extend further in latitude and altitude to regions that were previously protected by their cold winter conditions. The intensity and seasonality of vector-borne disease outbreaks are projected to change as well.
Vocabulary
glaciers – ледники
extinction – уничтожение
latitude – широта
altitude – высота над уровнем моря
pine beetle – лубоед-стригун
devastating effects – разрушающее воздействие
brunt – сила удара, основная тяжесть
exacerbate – обострять, усиливать, ожесточать
natural hazard – опасность связанная с природными условиями, стихийное бедствие, опасное природное явление
aquifer – водонасосный слой и горизонт
dwindle – истощаться, вырождаться
unwieldy – неподъемный, неуклюжий, громоздкий
dengue fever – лихорадка денге
pathogen – болезнетворный организм
vector-borne disease – трансмиссивная болезнь
outbreaks – вспышка, начало
Read the text and answer the following questions:
1. What are climate-related impacts on land can you think of?
2. What natural phenomena are less influenced by people?
3. What are the predictions about future water resources?
4. What does usually experience regions where glaciers and annual snowmelt are the primary source for surface waters?
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5. What are the consequences of declining in water resources?
6. How does climate change influence on agriculture?
Global response
The science of climate change is bringing to light an immense challenge for the global community. The global community has two courses of actions that it can undertake to mitigate the causes of climate change to the best of our abilities as well as to adapt to climate change.
Climate change is happening and will continue to a certain extent regardless of short- and middle-term actions, and adaptation is a necessity for all countries but particularly for the most vulnerable. These developing countries are also struggling with poverty and food insecurity, among others, which combine to worsen climate change vulnerabilities.
Mitigation actions must be taken in all countries. Developed countries have contributed the majority of historic emissions which have brought the world to where it is now, but many developing countries are catching up in emissions very quickly and some are even surpassing developed country emissions levels. In 2007, China took the lead in total greenhouse gas emissions, displacing the United States.
The world's response to climate change must be different than its responses to previous environmental problems. In the late 1980s, the global community mobilized to remove ozone-depleting chemicals from common use. Efforts were largely successful, and the ozone holes over the poles began shrinking within in a matter of years. Climate change will require a similar united response but on of a magnitude far greater, and the effects of these efforts will take longer to come to fruition.
In 1970s and 1980s, the scientific community made the link between acid rain and sulphur and nitrogen pollution. Through national and local efforts to limit or eliminate these emissions, people responded to protect their well-being and their living environment. Climate change, however, is not a geographically local problem that can be solved by local or regional efforts alone. Once greenhouse gases are emitted from their sources, they mix into the atmosphere and blanket the entire planet. To address climate change, international efforts must integrate with local, national, and regional abilities.
Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Kyoto Protocol aims at the 'stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.' Kyoto was the successful outcome of a difficult process, but agreement on the definition of 'dangerous anthropogenic interference' has continued to be the center of much debate. In the Kyoto agreement, countries also acknowledge the 'common but differentiated responsibilities' of developed and developing countries which have varying capacities to address climate change. Binding obligations apply only to Annex I countries, primarily industrialized countries, in the first commitment period (2008-2012). These countries agreed to reduce their emissions by 5 per cent by 2012 compared to 1990 levels.
Kyoto also recognized the similar challenge of clean development in developed countries and developing countries, or non-Annex I countries under the UNFCCC. Promoting sustainable development is the underlying goal behind the three 'flexible mechanisms' under Kyoto (emissions trading, joint implementation, and clean development mechanism).
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In 2007, the global community began serious preparations towards a new climate change agreement for the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol in Bali, Indonesia (COP13). Those efforts continued at the Conference of Parties in Poznan, Poland (COP14) and are to culminate at the Conference of Parties in Copenhagen, Denmark (COP15) in December of 2009.
The 2007 'Bali Roadmap' framed the plan of action for the 183 signatories of the UNFCCC. Among the outcomes are agreements to incorporate 'measurable, reportable, and verifiable' and nationally appropriate mitigation efforts by developed countries into the Copenhagen agreement. In a big shift, developing countries signaled a new willingness to engage in mitigation in addition to adaptation. Thus 'measurable, reportable, and verifiable' mitigation efforts by developing countries will also be considered.
The results of COP14 in Poznan raised concerns that the Copenhagen agreement was in jeopardy, with only the bare minimum agreed upon by the end of the two week conference. The European Union, normally a leader in this arena, was embroiled in debates on its own climate change package (20-20 by 2020). Developing countries tried to improve the productivity at COP14, but at COP15, both developing and developed countries must be actively engaged. If the world is to limit global warming to 2°C, it must reduce emissions by 50 to 80 per cent compared to 2000 levels by 2050, according to the IPCC. Scientists, vulnerable countries, and others are increasingly calling for a warming limit of 1.5°C. Calling the 2°C target 'suicide' for small island nations, Selwin Hart '“ a representative from Barbados at COP14 '“ stated on behalf of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), 'agreeing to a goal that results in our extinction is not something we're prepared to do.' There is much need to prevent further changes in the climate, and with world emissions steadily increasing, there is still much to be done.
Vocabulary
global response – глобальные ответные действия
mitigate – смягчить, облегчить
surpass – превосходить, превышать
ozone-depleting chemicals – вещество, разрушающее озоновый слой
to shrink – сокращаться
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) - Рамочная конвенция Организации Объединённых Наций об изменении климата
outcome – результат
jeopardy – опасность, риск
blanket – охватывать, покрывать
fruition – осуществление, достижение желаемого результата
differentiate responsibilities – дифференцировать ответственность
underlying goal – основная цель
to embroil in - впутываться, вовлекаться
anthropogenic interference – антропогенное вмешательство
Read the text and answer the following questions:
1. What two possible actions are advised by the author of the article to mitigate the effect of climate change?
2. What countries contributed more to climate change?
3. What is the purpose of Kyoto Protocol?
4. What countries are involved in solving the problem of climate change?
5. What is the role of global community in dealing with the climate change problem?
6. What are the results of the global community actions?
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