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Four processes of decision-making
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Four processes of decision-making
Whether small or large, short- or long-term, studied or impulsive, decision-making involves four major elements: problem definition, information search, choice, and evaluation. They are not sequential, they occur simultaneously. And it is often difficult to identify when a decision process begins and ends as most important choices are ongoing.
Problem definition
The first step in defining a problem is recognizing that it exists. Then, problems are plentiful; attention is scarce. Selecting a problem for attention and placing it on the policy agenda is the most important element in policy making. When a problem is given attention, it gains focus and takes shape. How a problem is defined affects how it is addressed.
Information search
When we are only vaguely aware that a problem exists, our first step is often to learn more about it, and this learning is an important step in the decision-making.
Information has always been central to governing, and governments are primary sponsors of research both in the sciences and humanities. Such research is driven by the interests of scholars and may not have immediate relevance to policy debate. But it may have important policy implications. For example, advances in lasers and genetic engineering influence defense and social policy in ways unanticipated by scientists or their government sponsors.
Choice
As problems are defined and information about problems and outcomes is examined, choices emerge. Weighing options and selecting are the most visible decision-making processes.
Sometimes choices are difficult and taking decisions is very hard, especially when choices are not clear and their results are unpredictable.
The selection process does not necessarily require reasoned judgments; the compromises of group decision-making often produce results that only few individuals prefer; satisfying single interests often means ignoring the interests of others.
Evaluation
Decisions do not end with choices among alternatives. Decision-making involves evaluating the effects and actions. Evaluation may be formal (an official study of the results produced by a new government program) or informal (scanning the news, talking to colleagues).
Whether formal or informal, evaluation is another form of information gathering after the choice.
The distinction between information search and evaluation is arbitrary. Before decision makers reach conclusions, most try to anticipate outcomes.
The most difficult aspect of evaluating choices is establishing the criteria. The most common criterion is the result – if things turn out well we feel that we made the right choice. But in this case we may confuse good luck with good decision-making. Results are not universal criteria for the quality of a decision. The evaluation of any decision-making must involve looking at results and processes as well as the situation faced by decision makers.
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Models of decision-making
There is no right or wrong way to make decisions. Sometimes cautious deliberation is the best path; at other times risks are required. But scholars speak about two broad categories of models of decision-making: rational and nonrational models.
Rational decisions are choices based on judgment of preferences and outcomes. They are not always turn out best and they do not eliminate the possibility of failure. Sometimes the goal is so important that it is rational to choose an option with little promise of payoff.
In nonrational models choices do not result from the deliberate balancing of pros and cons. These models share the assumption that the mix of rules and participants shape choices, and that decisions result from the varying (though not necessarily accidental) mix of ingredients. Most of governmental decisions are within these models. The decision process there is too complex to take into account multiple goals, alternatives and impacts of every alternative; the time required to take a decision is too short; the finances are too thin to provide long researches.
Taken to extremes, rational models reduce human judgment to computation, and nonrational models portray decision outcomes as the result of forces beyond individual control.
Both rational and nonrational models of the decision process are products of value-neutral social science. Values enter rational decision models only in the form of preferences, but they are generally defined in terms of self-interest. An emerging view of decision-making places a stronger emphasis on decisions as value statements.
Ex. 2. Read the text for understanding its main points and answer the following questions:
1) Some decisions we make have ramifications throughout our lives, don’t they? Why?
2) What four major elements does decision-making involve?
3) When does a problem gain focus and take shape?
4) Can information define the nature of policy-making? How?
5) What are the most visible decision-making processes?
6) What is the difference between formal and informal evaluation of a problem?
7) What do decision makers usually anticipate before they reach conclusions?
8) What is the most difficult aspect of evaluating choices? Why?
9) What are the two broad categories of decision-making models?
10) Within which models are most of governmental decisions? Why?
Ex. 3. Read the text for detailed information to complete the following sentences:
1) Sometimes we make snap … that in retrospect seem wise, other times we carefully … the pros and cons but are … by fate.
2) Decision … involves four major elements: problem … information …, …, and ….
3) When we are only vaguely … that a problem …, our first step is to learn more about it and this learning is an important step in decision ….
4) The first step in defining a problem is ….
5) Before decision makers reach …, most try to … outcomes.
6) Sometimes cautious … is the best path in decision-making, at other times ….
7) Rational … are choices based on … of preferences and outcomes.
8) Most of governmental decisions are within ….
Ex. 4. Answer the following questions:
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1) Why are most important decisions non-decisions?
2) Why can inaction have as important consequences as those resulting from action?
3) Why are four major elements of decision-making not sequential?
4) How do changes in our perception alter the decision process?
5) Why are information search and learning the most important steps in decision-making? Give examples.
6) Why is the distinction between information search and evaluation arbitrary?
7) Why is establishing the criteria the most difficult aspect of evaluating choices?
8) Why aren’t results universal criteria for the quality of a decision?
9) Why are rational decisions said to be choices based on judgment of preferences and outcomes?
10) Why are nonrational decisions said to be choices which do not result from the deliberate balancing of pros and cons?
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