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Ukraine 2000 and Beyond: Geopolitical Priorities and Scenarios of Development
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Ukraine 2000 and Beyond: Geopolitical Priorities and Scenarios of Development
Kyiv - 1999
Certified for publication by the Scientific Council
of the National Institute for Strategic Studies Edited by:
O. Belov (editor-in-chief), O. Honcharenko, N. Marchenko,
B. Parakhonsky, M. Rubanets', O. Yanishevsky
Editor of the English text: Dr. Roman Weretelnyk (University of Ottawa, Canada)
Head of the Authors' Collective- D. Sc. (History), Member of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS, London) O. Honcharenko
Authors -
NISS: O. Honcharenko, D. Sc. (Hist. )
B. Parakhonsky, D. Sc. (Philos. )
O. Potiekhin, D. Sc. (Hist. )
E. Lysytsyn, Ph. D.
O. Manachynsky, Ph. D.
S. Nikishenko, Ph. D.
O. Strekal, Ph. D.
A. Honcharuk
V. Kuznietsov
V. Malarov
O. Parakhonska
A. Soboliev
NIURR: R. Zhanhozha, D. Sc. (Philosophy)
V. Kuzmenko, Ph. D.
Ukraine 2000 and beyond: Geopolitical Priorities and Scenarios of Development / The monograph of the National Institute for Strategic Studies and National Institute for Ukrainian-Russian Relations. Kyiv, NISS, 1999. 384 p.
The monograph Ukraine 2000 and Beyond is a comprehensive study of possibilities and perspectives of sovereign Ukraine's interaction with international environment on global and regional levels.
The mentioned results of the research are based on the authors prior findings and are utilized for the determination of geopolitical and foreign policy priorities, and an examination of alternative scenarios necessary for the grounding of Ukraine's optimal strategies and programs of development for the future.
The monograph is aimed at a wide audience of scholars and politicians who are interested in the social and political future of Ukraine, or who are interested in the theoretical-conceptual findings apropos these questions.
© NISS, 1999.
© Academpress Ltd., design and layout, 1999.
ISBN 966-554-023-8
Foreword
Ukraine will mark its first decade of independence in the next century. The coming years will be pivotal for Ukraine's development, which will take place against the background of both major global and regional changes, and transformational and integrational processes. An important task for Ukraine today is the need to choose an optimal model of development, an adequate geopolitical strategy and a system of national security sufficient to ensure its existence as an independent sovereign state - a full-fledged subject of international relations.
Ukraine 2000 and Beyond: Geopolitical Priorities and Scenarios of Development is a collective monograph prepared by the National Institute of Strategic Studies in cooperation with the National Institute of Ukrainian-Russian Relations. It constitutes an, in our view successful, attempt at a comprehensive analysis of the basic priorities of Ukraine's national security and foreign policies in the context of geopolitical realities in the contemporary world, as well as of its national interests and goals.
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The publication is part of the " Ukraine 2010" academic-research project, ratified by the President of Ukraine. It is aimed at the concrete resolution of urgent problems concerning Ukraine's further affirmation as a politically and economically independent, democratic, law-based country.
A review of the alternatives of Ukraine's national strategy is conducted on two levels: on a global level, that is, on a level of key geopolitical contours in whose framework Ukraine's interaction with global centers of power occurs; and on a regional level, on which Ukraine's geopolitical strategy is formed in relation to individual countries and state structures.
A special characteristic of the monograph is its utilization of the results of concrete sociological studies of the state and dynamics of the changes in Ukraine's foreign-policy and geopolitical orientations in the years 1997-98.
A significant achievement on the part of the authors is the development of alternative scenarios for Ukraine's future for the period up to 2003, as well as the formation of strategic priorities for the future in the spheres of national security and foreign policy.
In raising fundamental principal questions of national security and geopolitics, whose resolution will significantly determine Ukraine's historical and political future, the authors at the same time do not propose to the reader a specific model for the future. Rather, they outline a range of possible alternatives, the realization of which can carry both positive and negative consequences.
Democratic society, which is the type of society taking shape in Ukraine today, should make its own choice.
Secretary of the National Security
and Defense Council of Ukraine Volodymyr Horbulin
Preface
The contemporary world is characterized by an accelerated dynamic of development. It is changing before our eyes. New dominants of the economic, sociopolitical, and cultural development of humanity, which will determine the shape of the future, are coming into view. New countries and groupings that aspire to find their place in the geopolitical space of the planet are entering the world arena. As a result of this a new configuration of international relations is being formed. Ukraine's first priority is an organic entry into the European and world communities and integration into the multifaceted world of complex international relations. Ukraine needs to find its own place in this space, which will correspond to its potential as a large Central European state.
Under current conditions Ukraine's foreign policy course can be defined as being multi-vectored, but in practice this idea is often oversimplified. Representatives of various political groupings attempt to publicize their views as to the foreign policy priorities of Ukraine according to their own ideological convictions. The most heated debates occur between those orientated toward the priority of the development of relations with post-communist Russia and those who see their first priority to be Ukraine's inclusion into Euro-Atlantic structures. The majority orientation of political thought along only two vectors reflects the stereotype of a bipolar world, burdened by thoughts about its confrontational nature. As is well known, this type of thinking came into being during the " Cold War" and it should be mentioned that it remains well engrained in the consciousness of various segments of the population. In view of the radical changes that have taken place in the last decade it is more accurate to speak about agrowing diversification of geopolitical environment and a mono-polar scheme of world order, bearing in mind the undisputed leadership of the US in the world.
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All these models reflect certain realities of the contemporary world, but as abstract constructs they should be considered with some reservations. Such ideas reduce reality and often impose the stereotypes of confrontational thinking, in that they foresee the coming into being of specific lines of geostrategic confrontation.
In our view geopolitical space today is divided by zones of tension between the sphere of the world's real economic and political order where the rule of law, of international order, and of concern with human rights predominate, and the sphere, characterized by lawlessness, numerous local conflicts, the hypertrophy of forces of a criminal nature, ecological crises, economic disorders, etc., all of which carry a threat to the security, stability and development of human civilization. It is in this sense that we can speak about the main axis of confrontation in today's world. Counteraction of the forces of chaos constitutes the most important priority of every country, according to which its system of foreign policy orientation is developed, as is conducted its search for partners and allies. The various dimensions of our foreign policy gain real content according to such a position.
The problem of geopolitical choice can be posited not only on a multidimensional plane, but also on a plane of bilateral relations with individual countries. This involves the question of strategic partnership, which at present appears somewhat clouded, as we often include in the ranks of " strategic partners" not those countries whose national interests in strategic directions correspond to our own, but those with whom we simply have good relations. At times we have in mind more the potential of the development of relations than the actual state of affairs. On the other hand, the choice of strategically important partners is a question of the effectiveness of our integration into the existent system of the division of functions and roles in contemporary geopolitical space.
Strictly speaking, Ukraine does not yet have real and reliable strategic allies. Their choice and determination and the development of the potential of relations to the above level is a lengthy and complex process that depends on many factors. Strategic partner relations foresee a high level of mutual interest both in the geoeconomic and geopolitical areas. In the establishment of such relations Ukraine is, of course, basing its actions on its own interests and on its experience of interaction with various countries.
It is precisely the recognition of the cardinal changes in all areas of life at the brink of the next century that determines the multi-vectored dimension of Ukraine's geostrategy in a post-bipolar world. As of today Ukraine's greatest foreign policy successes have occurred in its relations with the Euro-Atlantic community.
The priority of relations with the European world is determined by our national interests. We are not striving for integration into European structures at any cost, but with the calculation of all possible after-effects for the Ukrainian people. In its relations with NATO Ukraine is guided by the positions of the Charter on Special Partnership and actively cooperates with this body in the framework of the " Partnership for Peace Program".
Ukraine is building its relations with the Russian Federation as an equal partner. Testimony to such an approach is the Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation, and Partnership, and the Program of Economic Cooperation for 1998-2007. We are striving to, with joint efforts, attain a higher level of cooperation. Precisely such an approach, in our view, corresponds to the strategic interests of both countries.
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Ukraine is also constructively developing relations with other countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States, but mainly on a bilateral basis. Much has been said about the inadequate effectiveness of the mechanisms of multilateral cooperation within the framework of the CIS. Ukraine wants to maintain and develop all the rational economic and political ties that correspond to its present status of an independent and neutral country. Also timely are questions surrounding the reformation of the basic tenets of the CIS according to international experience dealing with the establishment and development of regional economic structures.
A strategically important direction of our foreign policy is also the South-Eastern vector, in the framework of which Ukraine is developing promising relations with countries of the Black Sea region, the Middle East, Central and South Asia, and the countries of the APR. Work on the conceptual bases of our strategy in this space is still far from complete, and practical problems that arise here demand serious efforts and decisions.
Not in the least, the authors of this volume would like to deeply thank everyone who took part in the preparation of the monograph, first of all to the editor of the English text Dr. Roman Veretelnyk (University of Ottawa, Canada), the translator A. Lakhnovsky and technical editor and designer L. Vovk.
Olexandr Belov
Deputy Secretary of the National Security
and Defense Council of Ukraine -
Director, NISS
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