2. The USA and the Euro-Atlantic Community - Ukraine - the Russian Federation

Ukraine is first of all a Central European state. This fact is determined by its history, its geographic position, its being a part of the traditions of European civilization, the demographic composition of its population, and its potential for economic relations with European states. Doubts regarding Ukraine's Central European status remain, as long-term orientation toward Moscow and the break in direct relations with Europe seem to testify to another status. Nevertheless, it is difficult to negate historical facts. Graeco-Roman civilization in the form of Orthodox Christianity came to Ukraine from the South, from the cultural center of the Mediterranean-Byzantine Empire approximately at the same time that it entered Northern Europe. In time, relations with Constantinople were severed and after the Tatar-Mongol invasion Ukraine orientated itself more toward the West, eventually becoming part of the Polish-Lithuanian state. The threat from the Polish nobility pushed Ukraine, which in its struggle with the Turkish-Islamic world as well as with the Polish nobility had already created its own state structures, into another direction - toward Orthodox Moscovite Russia. In the framework of the Russian Empire, and partly in the framework of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, Ukraine declined as an independent nation, nevertheless maintaining relations with European civilization through Moscow and Vienna. Thus, Ukraine has always been a part of Europe not only in a geographical but also in a cultural sense, although it is impossible to neglect the considerable influences of the Tiurk-Islamic South and East.

The process of Ukraine's integration into European structures has increased considerably after its declaration of independence. However, uncontrolled western expansion into Ukraine could be harmful for Ukraine's development as a nation and could constitute a threat of transforming Ukraine into the resource appendix of Europe, a supplier of cheap labor and brain-power. In this way only the direction of the dependence of the state will change: from a North-Eastern to a Westward orientation. Thus, Ukraine's entry into Europe and the world community must be controlled and based on a well-founded and consistent geostrategic concept.

The significance of the Westward orientations of Ukraine's foreign policy interests is determined both by the aspiration of the Ukrainian political é lite to find an equal balance to the Russian hegemony on the territory of the former USSR, and by a search for the possibilities of Ukraine's entry into the system of international relations by means of appropriate European structures. The West has also been expected to provide real economic aid and political support in the international arena, particularly in relations with Russia.

However, in general, the West has mainly demonstrated its interest in fostering the development of relations with the USSR's main legal successor - Russia, while the newly independent states have been regarded as being of secondary importance and difficult to comprehend. Despite having achieved a certain level of international recognition, Ukraine still lacks full-fledged security guarantees and reliable strategic allies. The majority of European countries are oriented toward Russia, fear Russia, and attempt to appease Russia. Ukraine is not as well known, and its possibilities are not as attractive for these countries. The tendency of western states to lose interest in Ukraine after having solved their internal security issues through its nuclear disarmament is dangerous. Bearing in mind the complexity of the process of Ukraine's entry into the European community as a full-fledged member, the threat of a political and economic vacuum surrounding Ukraine emerges.

On the other hand, the West, in recognition of and worried about the resurrection of a militarily and politically powerful Russian superpower, is disposed toward supporting Ukraine, as a certain counterbalance to Russia. The West, however, includes Ukraine within its structures with the aim of preventing Ukraine from seeking closer ties with Russia, while not providing any real guarantees for its security. The West is not interested in seeing Ukraine's military potential work for Russia, but at the same time Ukrainian chances for joining NATO in the near future appear problematic. A dangerous situation, where in the case of a serious Ukrainian-Russian conflict the West would limit itself to either declarations and loud proclamations blaming Russia, or would even come to an agreement with Russia behind Ukraine's back, is quite possible.

American geopolitical influence concerning post-Soviet states constitutes the continuation of its general Central European policy that aims to incorporate the region's states into Euro-Atlantic structures. This occurs through the mechanisms of the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council, the Partnership for Peace Program, through associate and full membership in the West-European Union, the European Union and other European and Euro-Atlantic structures.

Attention toward the Central and South-Central European post-communist states has increased after the invitation to join NATO has been extended to three Central European states (Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic). The results of the meeting of the Defense Ministers of South-Central European states that expressed their will to join the Alliance, held in October 1997 in Sofia on the initiative of the USA, as well as results of the 43rd. Assembly of the Atlantic Treaty Association demonstrate an increased interest toward Albania, Bulgaria, Romania, with indication that they have grounds for counting on joining the organization in the second wave. The possibility of an economic union of the region's states under USA umbrella is being considered. A sub-regional organization, " the South-Eastern Cooperative Initiative" has been formed.

The maximum that Ukraine can aspire to in the future is a step-by-step integration into West-European structures, including NATO. As it is a Central European state, the path towards integration into Europe is indispensable for Ukraine. Ukraine may be situated in Europe, but so far Ukraine has a little to go to Europe with, other than natural resources and cheap labor, which severely inhibits the development of equal relations.

Ukraine maintains a special position both in its relations with NATO as well as in its relations with the RF and the Tashkent Treaty. It aspires to preserve a certain balance between its relations with the RF and with NATO. However, despite its self-proclaimed neutrality, Ukraine occasionally feels increased pressure from one side or the other. This cannot remain as a stable situation for an extended period. Due to both internal and external factors Ukraine will ultimately find itself in a situation that will force it to make a final choice. At this point it is difficult to predict what this choice will be. The location of Ukraine in South Central Europe is too important strategically, its potential is too powerful to expect that NATO states or the RF will leave it alone as they do Sweden and other neutral states, for instance, and will not be tempted to take hold of the considerable advantages that Ukraine can provide. On the other hand, the formation of any strategic alliance apart from NATO or the RF, a Baltic-Black Sea alliance, for instance, is doubtful in the nearest future, although attention toward such structures is constantly increasing.

In search for an acceptable alternative to relations with the West and with Russia, the idea of a Baltic-Black Sea co-alliance as a security zone for the states in this region has emerged in the ruling circles of Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania and other states. The attractiveness of this idea for Ukraine lies in the belief that the formation of a regional bloc would create a stable international environment for Ukraine and would inhibit Russian claims on Ukrainian territory, strengthening the state's independence. Thus a system of counterbalance both to Russia and to the West could be created. In the future, this system together with other regional systems can become subsystems of a comprehensive European security structure.

With regard to Ukrainian policy toward Russia on a bilateral level, it can be stated that it is necessary to finally leave one's infant's wraps, to become aware of the power and means of a 50-million strong in terms of population sovereign European state. The practice of Ukraine's relations with its " northern neighbor" should be reviewed despite the fact that the current domestic economic situation is both complex and dependent on Russia (in the eighth year of independence the reasons for this are mainly internal).

Attempts to view relations with the RF in a bipolar manner (either as friendship, political and economic cooperation or as confrontation and competition) are fundamentally wrong. It is more correct to regard the above-mentioned relations as a complicated multidimensional complex that has its spheres of cooperation and collaboration and its spheres of competition or even direct confrontation (not at all necessarily military).

Ukrainian policy toward Russia must take into account the existence of these spheres of cooperation and confrontation in a variety of realms of international relations: economics, the ecology, culture. This should be a policy that provides for the interaction of two equal sovereign states that according to international norms attempt to broaden as far as possible their spheres of cooperation and to narrow their spheres of competition and confrontation, knowing full well that in one form or another the latter will always remain.

These sovereign independent states should conduct their own domestic and foreign policies, proclaim neutrality or non-bloc status, create economic, political and military unions, organize alliances, blocs and treaties, doing so, however, according to their national interest and national security.

Only such an approach can ensure the effective implementation of Ukraine's foreign geopolitical strategy in post-Soviet space and in Europe as a whole.