Рада національної безпеки і оборони України

Керівник авторського колективу -

доктор історичних наук, дійсний член Міжнародного інституту стратегічних досліджень (IISS, London), О. М. Гончаренко.

Автори:

доктор історичних наук      О. М. Гончаренко.

доктор філософських наук  Б. О. Парахонський,

доктор історичних наук     О. В. Потєхін,

доктор філософських наук  Р. Н. Жангожа,

кандидат економічних наук  В. П. Кузьменко,

кандидат воєнних наук        Е. М. Лисицин

кандидат воєнних наук        О. Я. Маначинський

кандидат історичних наук  С. О. Нікішенко

кандидат політичних наук  О. В. Стрекаль

 А. З. Гончарук

 В. П. Кузнєцов,

 О. Б. Парахонська,

 А. Я. Соболєв.

При повному або частковому відтворенні матеріалів наукової доповіді посилання на видання обов’язкове.

Foreword

Ukraine will mark its first decade of independence in the next century. The coming years will be pivotal for Ukraine's development, which will take place against the background of both major global and regional changes, and transformational and integrational processes. An important task for Ukraine today is the need to choose an optimal model of development, an adequate geopolitical strategy and a system of national security sufficient to ensure its existence as an independent sovereign state - a full-fledged subject of international relations.

Ukraine 2000 and Beyond: Geopolitical Priorities and Scenarios of Development is a collective monograph prepared by the National Institute of Strategic Studies in cooperation with the National Institute of Ukrainian-Russian Relations. It constitutes an, in our view successful, attempt at a comprehensive analysis of the basic priorities of Ukraine's national security and foreign policies in the context of geopolitical realities in the contemporary world, as well as of its national interests and goals.

The publication is part of the " Ukraine 2010" academic-research project, ratified by the President of Ukraine. It is aimed at the concrete resolution of urgent problems concerning Ukraine's further affirmation as a politically and economically independent, democratic, law-based country.

A review of the alternatives of Ukraine's national strategy is conducted on two levels: on a global level, that is, on a level of key geopolitical contours in whose framework Ukraine's interaction with global centers of power occurs; and on a regional level, on which Ukraine's geopolitical strategy is formed in relation to individual countries and state structures.

A special characteristic of the monograph is its utilization of the results of concrete sociological studies of the state and dynamics of the changes in Ukraine's foreign-policy and geopolitical orientations in the years 1997-98.

A significant achievement on the part of the authors is the development of alternative scenarios for Ukraine's future for the period up to 2003, as well as the formation of strategic priorities for the future in the spheres of national security and foreign policy.

In raising fundamental principal questions of national security and geopolitics, whose resolution will significantly determine Ukraine's historical and political future, the authors at the same time do not propose to the reader a specific model for the future. Rather, they outline a range of possible alternatives, the realization of which can carry both positive and negative consequences.

Democratic society, which is the type of society taking shape in Ukraine today, should make its own choice.

Secretary of the National Security
and Defense Council of Ukraine Volodymyr Horbulin

ЗМІСТ