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Why has the war lasted so long?




Why has the war lasted so long?

In essence, it has become more than just a battle between those for or against Mr Assad. A key factor has been the intervention of regional and world powers, including Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States. Their military, financial and political support for the government and opposition has contributed directly to the intensification and continuation of the fighting, and turned Syria into a proxy battleground.

External powers have also been accused of fostering sectarianism in what was a broadly secular state, pitching the country's Sunni majority against the president's Shia Alawite sect. Such divisions have encouraged both sides to commit atrocities that have not only caused loss of life but also torn apart communities, hardened positions and dimmed hopes for a political settlement.

Meanwhile, so-called Islamic State (IS), which controls large areas of northern and eastern Syria, is battling government forces, rebel brigades and Kurdish militias, as well as facing air strikes by Russia and a US-led multinational coalition.

Thousands of Shia militiamen from Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan and Yemen say they are fighting alongside the Syrian army to protect holy sites.

Why are so many outside powers involved?

Russia, for whom President Assad's survival is critical to maintaining its interests in Syria, launched an air campaign in September 2015 with the aim of " stabilising" the government after a series of defeats. Moscow stressed that it would target only " terrorists", but activists said its strikes mainly hit Western-backed rebel groups.

Six months later, having turned the tide of the war in his ally's favour, President Vladimir Putin ordered the " main part" of Russia's forces to withdraw. However, intense Russian air and missile strikes went on to play a major role in the government's siege of rebel-held eastern Aleppo, which fell in December 2016.

Shia power Iran is believed to be spending billions of dollars a year to bolster the Alawite-dominated government, providing military advisers and subsidised weapons, as well as lines of credit and oil transfers. It is also widely reported to have deployed hundreds of combat troops in Syria. Mr Assad is Iran's closest Arab ally and Syria is the main transit point for Iranian weapons shipments to the Lebanese Shia Islamist movement Hezbollah, which has sent thousands of fighters to support government forces.

The US, which says President Assad is responsible for widespread atrocities, has provided only limited military assistance to " moderate" rebel groups, fearful that advanced weapons might end up in the hands of jihadists.

Sunni-ruled Saudi Arabia, which is seeking to counter the influence of its rival Iran, has been a major provider of military and financial assistance to the rebels, including those with Islamist ideologies.

Turkey is another staunch supporter of the rebels. In August 2016, Turkish troops backed a rebel offensive to drive IS militants out of one of the last remaining stretches of the Syrian side of the border not controlled by the Kurds. Since then, they have taken control of some 2, 000 sq km.

What impact has the war had?

The UN says at least 250, 000 people have been killed in the past five years. But in February 2016 it was estimated that the conflict had caused 470, 000 deaths, either directly or indirectly.

Five million people - most of them women and children - have fled Syria, according to the UN. Neighbouring Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey have struggled to cope with one of the largest refugee exoduses in recent history. A further 6. 3 million people are internally displaced inside Syria.

The UN estimates it will need $3. 4bn (£ 2. 7bn) to help the 13. 5 million people who will require some form of humanitarian assistance inside Syria in 2017.

Almost 85% of Syrians live in poverty. More than 12. 8 million people in Syria require health assistance and more than seven million are food insecure. Some 1. 75 million children are out of school.

The warring parties have compounded the problems by refusing humanitarian agencies access to many of those in need. Some 4. 9 million people live in besieged or hard-to-reach areas.

What's being done to end the conflict?

With neither side able to inflict a decisive defeat on the other, the international community long ago concluded that only a political solution could end the conflict. The UN Security Council has called for the implementation of the 2012 Geneva Communique, which envisages a transitional governing body with full executive powers " formed on the basis of mutual consent".

Peace talks in early 2014, known as Geneva II, broke down after only two rounds, with the UN blaming the Syrian government's refusal to discuss opposition demands.

In January 2017 Turkey, Russia and Kazakhstan hosted the first face-to-face meeting between rebel fighters and government officials since the war began. That was followed by a fresh round of UN-mediated talks in Geneva.

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