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b) The Balkan Axis
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Because of the peculiarities of its geopolitical situation, the Balkan peninsula was and remains in the focus of confrontation among different western and eastern states. All of Balkan history represents a conflict of national, ethnic and religious factors. It is worth underlining that Islam advanced onto Europe through the Balkans and it was here that it was stopped. Precisely this circumstance determined the formation of a special Balkan cultural, economic and political space.
The current geopolitical situation, which has come into form in the Balkans can be defined by the following characteristics:
· Two poles (Greece and Turkey), that vie to attract other states of the region to their orientation can be identified. Because of the insufficiency of their potential, neither state is able to aspire toward full-scale regional leadership. Neither is this promoted by their economic situations and by general European circumstances.
· The majority of post-communist states strive for entry into European and Euro-Atlantic structures. Other states, such as Ukraine and Moldova, follow principles of military-political neutrality. They participate in the " Partnership for Peace" program, but do not plan to enter military alliances in the nearest future.
· Global centers of power - the EU, the USA, and Russia actively influence regional processes.
· The transitional economic model predominates. The economy of post-communist states remain at the transformational stage, which demands the involvement of external investments. " Privatization by the nomenclature, a form of theft capitalism and corruption" are its important feature. (T. G. Eshar). · The prolonged preservation of an unstable internal state featuring ethnic collisions and economic and political instability. (The above corresponds not only to the countries of the former socialist system, but also to Greece, which has the intent to become a member of the EU Monetary Union. It will have to undergo serious economic transformation in order to achieve established criteria, which will probably lead to an increase in sociopolitical tensions. )
· The mixture in one region of several types of culture: the discrepancy between Eastern Orthodoxy, historically supported by the majority of the regional population, and Islam.
· The scarcity of energy resources among states in the region. Except for Albania, all regional countries have different levels of dependence on oil and gas imports.
· The formation of new transit corridors through the territory of regional countries. The disintegration of the USSR gave an opportunity for the formation of new trade routes uniting Eastern European and Eastern states. Bulgaria and Romania hold key positions for the transit of Russian gas to Greece, Macedonia and in the future, to Albania and by new gas pipelines to Italy.
Still at the development stage, regional interstate relations are based on a solid foundation of acting bilateral agreements. Fears that after the collapse of the socialist system states of the region will follow the example of Yugoslavia and will become involved in a maelstrom of uncontrolled regional wars have not materialized. The states have followed the general European line of the peaceful solution of emerging problems. Their bilateral relations have a generally smooth character, without aggressive attacks upon each other. Signed interstate agreements promote the development of political dialog and economic cooperation.
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Radical political and economic changes are underway in all regional states except Greece. Potential instability caused, first of all, by economic backwardness, the complex ethnic composition of the population, and interstate relations is typical for the Balkan states as well as for the whole post-communist world. In general, regional states have backed away from the communist ideology that had complete control over state and social activity in the political and economic realms. At the same time regional transformational processes are far from their completion.
In view of the extremely complex and multi-systemic current Balkan reality, an analysis of the determination of Ukraine's place and role in this region demands in the least a brief review of the national interests and priorities of regional states as well as of the main external powers that participate in the formation of this reality. The Balkan Peninsula can, with a certain degree of relativity, be divided into two geostrategic regions: The northern zone (Romania, Slovenia, and Croatia) and the southern zone (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Greece, Macedonia, the FRY, and Turkey). According to its sociopolitical, economic and ethnic characteristics the first zone approaches Central Europe and is oriented toward the comprehensive development of relations along the Central Europe - Adriatic - South Europe communicative line.
In the last while Romania has attempted to persuade NATO that it can become an important unifying link in the Balkans and that it is worthy of acceptance in NATO's new round of enlargement. All of this has forced Romania to put into motion its actions concerning the preparation of a Friendship, Neighborly Relations and Cooperation Treaty with Ukraine, that was signed by the Presidents of Ukraine and Romania on July 2, 1997.
Holding an important geostrategic position, Romania aspires to become a transit state for the transportation of Caspian oil and currently claims the role of a unifying link between the Caucasian region and Europe. Romania, which is situated on one of the oil transportation routes to the Balkans and further to Europe and Moldova have become mutually interested partners. Thus, Bucharest together with Kishinev intend to continue the axis of strategic partnership formed between Baku, Tbilisi and Kyiv.
Romania in NATO would represent the bloc's entry onto the west coast of the Black Sea and Bulgaria, and thus unity with the " enclaves" of Greece and Turkey. " Economic proof" was also shown in Bucharest: if the country enters NATO it will " join the team", causing western investments to flow. In any case, a serious change in the strategic situation and balance of power in Europe would be at hand.
In distinction to its policy toward Ukraine, the West is very attentive to Romania. Due to many reasons, however, the West's leadership disappoints Bucharest's most intense hopes. US President Bill Clinton considered it important to visit Bucharest immediately following the 1997 Madrid summit, calming his hosts with speeches that NATO's doors remain open to them.
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The main priority of Slovenia and Croatia is integration into all West-European and Atlantic structures. The as quick as possible attainment of status similar to that of the " Vishegrad four" is regarded to be their first priority.
Of the former Yugoslav republics Slovenia is today the closest to being accepted into the EU and NATO. This fact is undoubtedly one of the key factors that determines the pragmatic Slovene position.
The present situation shows that there are a number of problems to be solved in Croatia, among them, the return of Serbs to Serbian Kraina. Today as before the Serbian population in East Slovenia is under threat. An attempt by the Croatian government to resettle Serbs in other Croatian lands should not be excluded, despite the fact that the Erdut peace treaty allows Serb refugees the right to stay in the Srems-Bran district. In this case a new outward flow of the Serbian population can be expected. This is why lasting peace in the Balkans is impossible without a long-term solution of the Serbian question in Croatia.
Despite the unilateral recognition of Slovenia by Yugoslavia, officially Lublyana is not hurrying with the complete normalization of its relations with Yugoslavia. The reason for this, according to Slovene officials, is that unsolved issues concerning the division of the assets of the former Yugoslavia remain. However, led by pure economic interests, Slovene business circles are attempting to out-distance politicians in this matter.
The southern zone has largely maintained the set of characteristics that form part of the concept of " the Balkans": economic backwardness and an undeveloped infrastructure, internal political instability, a mixed ethnic complement of the population and highly tense interstate relations, fraught with the development of new conflicts. From this point of view worth mentioning is the almost complete correlation of internal and external threats to the security of these countries.
The Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY). The crucial factor relating to the Serbian position in the Balkans is found in the deeply engrained stereotypes of influential political and cultural circles in the West. According to these, Serbs constitute the fore-post of Byzantine cultural and geopolitical space, and thereby a possible factor of Russian political and cultural influence in South and Eastern Europe.
The international community is today not ready to accept the disintegration of Serbia. That is the key factor in understanding the West's position concerning the President of Yugoslavia. As before, it regards the President to be a guarantor of the continuing peace process in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The signing of the Dayton Accord opened practical opportunities in the search for a new concept of Yugoslav foreign policy, which would correspond to existent European realities. " A European orientation" is proclaimed to be the main direction of the foreign policy of the FRY, which in the long-term means entry into the EU and later, possibly into NATO.
The USA has already exerted serious influence on the regional situation for a lengthy period. In December, 1997 the USA made a unilateral decision to continue economic sanctions against Yugoslavia, which in the nearest future will complicate the restoration of the FRY's rights in various international organizations and institutions.
Another serious factor that influences the foreign policy of the FRY is the RF, whose interests in the Balkans have a constant character.
On April 1, 1998 the Security Council of the UN voted for the establishment of an embargo on weapons supply to the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia " in order to promote the achievement of peace and stability in Kosovo". The accepted resolution calls on the Yugoslav government to urgently take all necessary steps in order to achieve a political solution of the Kosovo problem, by way of dialog and the fulfillment of the decisions of the Contact Group. At the same time, this document proposes to the leaders of Kosovo's Albanians the denunciation of all terrorist acts and is remindful that all groups of the Albanian community must attempt to reach their goals through exclusively peaceful means.
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Albania, of course, will not remain indifferent to any conflict in Kosovo, as this country dreams about reuniting with its numerous compatriots on the territory of the FRY. Macedonia, with its considerable Albanian population can also become involved in the crisis and it is possible that Turkey, Greece and Bulgaria would enter the fray. Turkey undoubtedly aspires to internationalize the Islamic national minorities on the territory of the FRY, Bosnia, and Bulgaria and to strengthen its influence in the south of the Balkans.
The involvement of other European states such as Italy, France and also of the USA in the conflict cannot be excluded. The conflict itself would develop into a purely religious one, a confrontation of Orthodoxy with the Muslim world.
Albania has repeatedly announced that it would not remain indifferent in the case of an escalation of the conflict in Kosovo, providing its compatriots with moral and material aid, as well as with weaponry if the need arises. At the same time it is necessary to take into account that Kosovo Albanians, who after the fall of the communist regime in Tirana had an opportunity to establish closer relations with their compatriots abroad, do not hurry to declare slogans of reunification. The two branches of the Albanian nation have for a long time lived under different political roofs and in different economic conditions, and today they significantly differ in their evaluations of a future existence in one state. Tirana's government supports the separatist tendencies of Albanians not only in Kosovo but also in neighboring states, thinking about the creation of a " Greater Albania". This cannot but worry Athens, Belgrade's historical ally.
Macedonia is struggling to earn international recognition but to a certain extent is being blocked by Greece. Paroxysms of Greek nationalism linger since the 1920's, when many Greeks deported from Turkey were settled in the Greek part of Macedonia. Since that time Greece has defended the official position that the entire population of this part of Macedonia is Greek. Greek Macedonians who do not agree with this view are forced to emigrate. It is this Macedonian Diaspora that is the main source of Macedonian extremism (particularly, financial), that still maintains the dream of a " Greater Macedonia" that would include a part of Greece.
At present Macedonia has gained the official name of " The Former Yugoslavian Republic of Macedonia". Official Skopje, having realistically evaluated the situation that has arisen in the Balkans, has allowed for the disposition of a US military contingent on its territory.
At the end of June - beginning of July, 1993 300 American marines arrived in Macedonia under the banner of a UN peacemaking mission.
In the opinion of the Director of Belgrade's Institute for International Policy and Economy, Dushan Simich, Washington in this way has driven a wedge into the sphere of interests of three main Balkan powers: the Islamic, Russian and European (German). Simich believes that among the USA's global interests are the prevention of a real rebirth of Russia from communist ashes, and the curbing of the spread of the " Islamic threat".
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Bosnia and Herzegovina (BaH). The current conflict within BaH between representatives of the main national-religious groups (Croats, Muslims and Serbs) began in March 1992 after the EU recommended referendum on independence had taken place.
During the war Bosnia persistently called on the USA to unilaterally cancel the embargo on weapons supply, and despite sanctions, consistently armed itself. In practice, US, WEU and NATO forces did not fulfill their function of enforcing the embargo of BaH. Moreover, beginning in 1994, an active supply of weapons and military machinery stimulated the Muslim offensive. On December 20, 1996, operation " Mutual Guard" began in Bosnia under the aegis of NATO and according to the mandate of the UN Security Council. It represented the second stage of international peacemaking concerning the realization of the Dayton Accord.
Confederate Bosnia remains no more than a symbol, despite elections to its highest governmental bodies, held in September 1996. Interethnic tension has not ceased. As earlier, Serbs, Croats and Muslims do not feel a strong urge to live together.
In order to influence the configuration of regional powers Greece and Turkey are attempting to establish friendly relations with other Balkan states. Despite these attempts, however, as of this time no regional pro-Greek and pro-Turkish mini-blocs have been formed. Other countries of the region do not participate in the contradictions that continue without end between Greece and Turkey. Romania distances itself both from Greece and Turkey. At first Bulgaria held more of a pro-Greek policy, however after the coming to power of right-centrists it has started to maintain better relations with Turkey. More balanced relations with Greece as well as with Turkey have replaced the pro-Greek inclination.
Greece holds a key position in the south of the Balkans. Its most serious contradictions in bilateral relations arise with its simultaneously single neighbor and NATO partner, Turkey. It is sufficient to remember that over the last years Ankara and Athens have several times found themselves on the brink of war. Relations between these two states are determined by four main problems: Cyprus, the Aegean Sea, the Turkish minorities in West Phrakia and Constantinople's patriarchate in Turkey.
The Republic of Cyprus. The Zurich-London treaty of 1959 defined its state system and constitution. Great Britain, Greece and Turkey became guarantors of this process, with London maintaining two military bases - Deckely and Ackroti, where approximately 4000 English military personnel are deployed. In December 1963 an armed conflict between the Greek and Turkish populations of the island occurred. According to the March 4 resolution of the Security Council, UN military forces were deployed on the island. One third of Cyprus is under Turkish administration. In 1975 leaders of the Turkish community proclaimed the establishment of the Turkish federative state. The Turkish republic of Northern Cyprus was created in 1983. It remains unrecognized in the world. These actions have complicated the island's situation even more, and its situation remains unresolved. It is possible that in the future Turkey will attempt to incorporate the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus into the mainland. All of the above does not promote the elimination of the center of tensions between Greece and Turkey.
It bears underlining that the absence of military parity between Ankara and Athens has a special influence on the development of Greek-Turkish relations. In circumstances where Turkish leaders declare their readiness to deploy armed forces in reply to the " illegal actions" of Greece, Turkey's quadruple military advantage over Greece prevails as the main argument in the contradiction. Because of this reason the possibility of conflict remains.
Bulgaria. At present, the sphere of interaction of Bulgaria and Greece with other regional states concerning the provision of security, the development of cooperation, and of good-neighborly relations on the Balkan peninsula is on the increase, as is cooperation between Bulgaria and the RF.
According to the results of March 1998 negotiations between the Head of the Board of the Russian Stock Enterprise " Gazprom" and the Vice-President of the Bulgarian government, " Gazprom" will ensure a gradual increase in the general amount of Russian gas supply to Bulgaria that will total 8 billion cubic meters per year in the year 2010. Meanwhile, the Bulgarian Stock Company " Bulgargas" will ensure the transit of 18. 7 billion cubic meters of Russian gas through Bulgaria to third countries, of which 14 billion cubic meters will go to Turkey.
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Bulgaria and Greece are planning the construction of the Burgas (Bulgaria) - Alexandrupolis (Greece) oil pipeline. It is of strategic importance for the economic development of both states and for Bulgarian and Greek participation in geopolitical plans of energy supply to Europe.
Local non-formal unions of countries have been formed in the Balkans. Members of the North Atlantic Alliance are particular leaders of these groups, which relatively speaking, oppose each other. The " Turkish bloc", which presently holds the initiative, includes Albania. The pro-Greek group consists of the FRY and Bulgaria. Romania cooperates with these states but does not wish to worsen its relations with Turkey and France.
Foreign powers in the Balkans. Germany has not been too evident in implementing its grand policy in the Balkans and has conducted its line carefully, if successively and persistently. It has gradually became " a presence" in the Balkans, becoming a member of the Contact Group, participating in rapid deployment forces, and by having the governor of Mostar as its representative.
German actions in the Balkans have demonstrated its equivocal policy: on the one hand it is a supporter of peace, cooperation and a champion of ensuring European security. On the other hand it is attempting to revive the geopolitical principles of the Mitteleuropa concept, to master with the help of its powerful economy territories that had been lost during the two World Wars. Germany has included Croatia and Slovenia in the sphere of its interests and has taken control of international cross-roads in ensuring access to the Adriatic and Mediterranean seas. This is the reason behind its support of Croatia, in terms of weapons supply and defense from sanctions.
A unified Germany makes a claim for the leading role in European political and economic life. Germany is today developing into the most powerful political factor in Europe.
In practice, Slovenia, Croatia, and Hungary have already entered the orbit of German policy, and Romania and Bulgaria are gravitating toward it. It seems that Germany already in 1990 understood that movement toward the West is closed to it. This is why it is attempting to " reanimate" its former allies of World War II.
On May 30, 1992 the government of the RF announced its intention of doing everything possible in order to improve its traditional ties of friendship with Yugoslav nations. At the same time Russia voted for international sanctions against the FRY. In September 1992 the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the RF explained the Russian position concerning the Yugoslav crisis. According to it, Russia stands for the inviolability of external borders and for a moratorium on changes in the international borders of the former Yugoslavia, and also for the non-recognition of territorial division through forceful means.
It bears noting that during this period Russian policy in the Balkans could be characterized as being ambiguous. Moreover, Russian policy did not promote the establishment of peace in the Balkans. It was clear as early as 1992 that Russia's unconditional political and economic support of Serbia would serve Russian interests much better than a policy of appeasement and a loss if face in the Balkans.
Regardless of the future for a final solution of the Bosnian conflict, the presence of Allied forces corresponds to USinterests as it reinforces NATO's leading position in the ensuring of European security and underlines the ineffectiveness of the OSCE and the UN against the background of NATO military coordination.
A closer look at American actions shows an interesting detail: Slavs, particularly Serbs, have never been supported by Washington under the banner of its geopolitical interests in the regions. To this day American politicians equate Serbs with the last stronghold of socialism in the Balkans, which is to be annihilated.
It seems that Washington is still afraid of Russia and its influence on Belarus' and Ukraine. This is why the weakening of Slavic domination in post-Soviet space and also in the Balkans, where Russia's role has always been large, is one of the most important components of Washington's foreign policy. Following the above, the US has developed a long-term program to gain mastery in the Balkans. The US has already " put into production" projects of international regional cooperation and is attempting to ensure its control over this important region.
US strategy is directed toward filling the political space created after the collapse of the USSR and the WPT. The strategic direction of the filling of political space through the Balkans (Macedonia, Bosnia) and the Black Sea through to the Near and Middle East and the gaining of mastery over the Transcaucases is already in evidence.
Various mechanisms for the " disciplining" of the Balkans exist. However, most visible among them are efforts to use economic cooperation and political pressure in order to encourage the Balkans toward greater cooperation, in this way placing them under strategic control.
The Vatican made a significant contribution toward the collapse of socialism in Eastern Europe. It is now attempting to widen the sphere of Catholic influence in the Balkans, where Eastern Orthodoxy has been traditionally strong. Rome has always regarded the union of Catholic Croatia and Slovenia with Orthodox Serbia to be unacceptable.
It is a given that NATO's operation in Bosnia was successful not in terms of the establishment of a stable peace that is not yet present, but in terms of effective actions through force, an active " enforcement of peace". Operation SFOR in Bosnia demonstrated:
· the indispensability of NATO as an active mechanism in the provision of military security in Europe as a whole, and in separate sub-regions that exist outside of the bloc's zone of responsibility;
· proof that Europe is not able to ensure its own security without US military participation, which Washington is only prepared to embark upon within a NATO coordinated framework.
Today, the West, in our opinion, is attempting to pull the Balkan states into the orbit of its influence. In terms of geopolitics this means the creation of a single NATO belt from the Atlantic to the Persian Gulf, through the Balkans and the Middle East. The activation of cooperation with " potential NATO members" Romania and Bulgaria is in NATO plans. This ensures the Alliance's access to the Black Sea and the surrounding of the FRY by NATO and pro-NATO countries.
After the disintegration of the former SFRY, one of the largest and strategically important South-Eastern European countries, the Balkans resembled an area that had recently experienced a difficult political earthquake. Smoke still emerges from the powder-barrel ignited by the war in former Yugoslav republics as if for the last time warning the Balkan nations as well as the centers of world power.
At present the Balkan region has become much more vulnerable than it had been at the beginning of this decade. New contradictions were added to those that were inherited, while old problems remain far from being solved. The fact that the whole Balkan region suffers from the still existent international sanctions against Yugoslavia is of no less importance. Nevertheless, with the cessation of the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the improvement of relations between former Yugoslav republics, the situation has been moving toward the better. The readiness of Balkan states to embark on the process of overcoming old confrontations has recently become more evident.
At present, after the disintegration of the WPT has altered the balance of power in the region, stability in SEE is supported by the involvement of states in the process of general European security. Common aspirations of political é lites in post-communist countries of the region for full-fledged membership in pan-European political, economic and military institutions is a dominant factor of geopolitical direction and is considered as a national state interest. The existing unidimensionality reduces the intensity of internal regional relations and creates shared regional stability.
Ukraine and the Balkans. Countries of the South-Western direction hold an important place in Ukrainian foreign policy interests. Ukraine can have an influence in this region, but without economic support this will remain only a desirable opportunity. Diplomatically achieved successes should be supported by economic actions.
The role of raw materials and consumer goods in Ukraine's export scheme to the countries of the region remains important. Ukraine has a positive trade balance with Black Sea states, which attests to the future of this direction of foreign trade relations.
Ukraine could activate the Balkan direction of its policy, relying on the development of bilateral relations with those regional states, whose foreign political, economic and defense aspirations objectively coincide with Ukraine's interests. The economic aspects of Ukrainian interaction with states of the Balkan peninsula are the most predictable, first of all, because of the objectivity of economic laws that do not depend on the subjective wishes and actions of politicians.
It can be asserted that the future of the development of Ukrainian-Balkan relations appears in a favorable light, and has the potential to positively influence the development of Balkan states. The reason for this is not only the fact that these relations have been rather active in the past few decades. Such confidence is dictated by the Balkan economic situation that will remain stable in the nearest future. Sooner or later Balkan politicians will have to agree that at the present stage states of the former CMEA and countries that have become independent are the best business partners for each other. This can be explained by the following reasons:
· opportunities to restore former mutually beneficial economic ties remain;
· an approximately similar and rather low general technological level of basic industrial branches;
· difficulties in accessibility to western markets. These difficulties will probably decrease with the development of integrative processes within the framework of the European Union;
· the necessity to protect the interests of domestic producers from western expansion. Many sectors of the economy in different Balkan states already feel significant difficulties in selling their goods even in their own countries.
The process of establishing new and of restoring old interrupted ties and multilateral cooperation on the territory of former Yugoslavia, in the Balkans, the South and Central Europe is long and complex. Only gradual steps are possible, while quick decisions are impossible because of a large number of reasons. Balkan involvement in European integrative processes plays an important role in this process. The above-mentioned region cannot and should not close itself within a narrow framework of exclusively Balkan cooperation. Being an important part of European civilization, the Balkans function as the geographical, transportation, historical, and religious link that unites Europe with the Middle East.
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