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4. The Black Sea Region. a) Ukraine in the Black Sea Region.
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4. The Black Sea Region
a) Ukraine in the Black Sea Region.
Ukraine together with its South-Eastern neighbors - the Black Sea states, the Transcaucases, and Central Asia form the central part of the Rimland, which territorially embraces the Heartland. These states, along with Ukraine and the Baltic countries, hold eminently important positions in European and Eurasian geopolitical space. The region's strategic meaning is mainly due to the transportation corridors that pass through it. These connect European centers with resource rich countries of the Middle East and Central Asia and further lead to the large markets of highly-populated states in the Indian Ocean and Asian-Pacific area. On the other hand, the Black Sea region connects North-Eastern and Central Europe with countries on the Mediterranean rim, and forms a mutual zone of economic and political interests in Europe and Asia as a whole.
The geopolitical status of the Black Sea region and events that occur there hold a substantial significance for the historical fate of European nations. With dominant regional forces here ceasing to blockade the routes from Europe to the East, this region functions as a bridge rather than a barrier, and provides opportunities for the development of communications in a latitudinal direction. As a result, other, roundabout routes, mainly more risky seaways, lose their importance. These seaways were developed by western European states during the time of Tiurk-Islamic domination in the region, and ensured the emergence of modern European civilization. In Soviet times, Moscow's control over Eurasian routes did not promote the development of a transcontinental system of communications with outlets to the oceans. This also stimulated the development of roundabout sea and air communications. Central European non-sea states, such as Germany, are objectively interested in the absence of any blockading forces in this region. Such a state of affairs corresponds to Ukraine's interests, because as a European state it is imbued with general European interests, and as a regional state cannot have any global blockading intentions.
In the 19th-20th centuries socio-economic modernization contributed to the processes that led to the formation of national states in the Black Sea-Caspian Sea area. These were complex and difficult processes. Today the causes for local conflicts have not lost their actuality. Internal interethnic and interdenominational contradictions are compounded by external intervention. The overcoming of confrontational relations in this region can be achieved by the corresponding transformation of economic models of the region's states. However, these processes face significant resistance both from the Islamic population, guided by traditional Islamic values, as well as from certain strata of the population of post-socialist states, still significantly bound by the stereotypes of the former mentality. The problems related to uncontrolled migration, the growth of organized crime, and drug trafficking should also be mentioned here.
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Ukraine's positioning in South-Central Europe, at the cross-roads of three great geopolitical masses - the Euro-Atlantic, Eurasian and Islamic, creates a unique civilizational space. This situation carries a certain advantage and also causes many significant problems. In any case, this positioning is decisive for the fate of Ukraine as a state.
The other decisive factor that influences the extraordinary significance of the region is the existence of giant oil and gas deposits in the area. Their development and supply to world markets should begin at the end of the century. As a result, the activity of powerful international oil and financial-industrial companies in the region has already commenced, combined with the simultaneous formation of new political unions, alliances and changes in the balance of power. The shift of NATO's Southern flank from the Mediterranean to the Black Sea is becoming more obvious. Growing Russian activity in the Transcaucases, the Caspian region, and in relations with Iran and Iraq is also testimony to this. In order to increase its presence and influence in the region, Washington has in the last months made significant concessions to Iran and Azerbaijan.
In the last while the West has shown increased interest in the region in connection with the exploitation of oil deposits in the Caspian Sea and the development of a trans-Asian network of transport and energy communications. The region's actual meaning for the RF also lies in its transit function. Today it is important for the RF as an area of extraction and supply of energy carriers, as a transit route, and as an energy source that unites the RF with the Middle East and the Mediterranean. Russian gas flows through Turkey via the territory of Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria.
The Black Sea region, and not the least Ukraine, encapsulates core transportation oil communication routes along the " East-West" axis as well as along " South-North" axis. It would be enough to mention that the use of Ukrainian territory more than halves the length of the oil transportation route from the Middle East (via Turkey and the Black Sea) to Europe. The Ukraine-Georgia transportation corridor is much shorter than alternative routes through Turkey or through Russia.
As a strategic route of energy carriers to Europe and taking into account Ukrainian processing capabilities, Ukraine has an opportunity to become a significant link in European economic security. With the activation of the Odesa oil terminal Ukraine will have considerable opportunities to regulate oil flows from the Middle East and Caspian area to Europe. Thus it will have an influence over the geopolitical balance of the entire Eurasian region. It is obvious that this set of circumstances can hardly satisfy, first of all, the Russian Federation, interested in the transportation of its own energy carriers to Europe. The introduction of an oil route via the Odesa terminal will cause the RF to lose its positions in the Middle East, to the benefit of Ukraine. This is possibly one of the reasons for RF policy activation in the region. At the same time, along with development of alternative routes, Ukraine is also interested in the transportation of Russian and Central Asian energy carriers through its territory, which demands a corresponding rapprochement with Russia.
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In a sub-regional dimension Ukraine remains a great regional state with significant potential, which gives it an opportunity to conduct active policy concerning the realization of its own interests. As a strategic transit route of West-European petroleum-energy and raw materials supply, Ukraine becomes a center for the regulation of global geoeconomic concerns. Ukraine is interested both in the creation of favorable conditions for the transportation of energy and raw materials through its territory and in the development of alternative routes of their transportation. As a successor of the former USSR, its interests, goals and problems, particularly, in the Black Sea region, Ukraine has to play a significant role in the organization of a new system of regional order. The settling of conflicts in the Balkans, Transdniestria and the Caucasus is of vital importance for Ukraine as is the formation of models for equal partnership with Poland, Turkey, Russia and other powerful regional leaders in this part of the world.
However, it is evident that Ukraine has partly lost its positions here. Lost control over the Black Sea fleet, lost Balkan markets due to the shutdown of the Danube transportation network, difficulties with the development of a Caucasian energy transport corridor, the Odesa oil terminal etc. - all of the above could objectively decrease opportunities for Ukraine's regional leadership. It is important for Ukraine to strengthen its strategic positions in the Black Sea region, to form closer relations with the Balkan states and Caucasian countries, that also could have problems relating to the entry into regional security systems.
Since 1992, as a result of its inconsistent policies Ukraine misuses its real opportunity to obtain a leading place among regional transporters of " great oil", and risks to be excluded from this process. At the same time Russia has not only actively developed transportation corridors around Ukraine (Yamal - Poland - Europe), Baku - Novorossiisk, but has also actively and strongly defended its national interests. As a result, Ukraine remains in an energy blockade from all sides and has significantly lost the economic bases of its sovereignty and its geopolitical value for the West. Time passes quickly. If no radical decisions are made in the nearest months, Ukraine can lose its economic independence and will forever remain on the outskirts of Europe, a country of unfulfilled opportunities with a Russian noose around its neck.
The formation of BSEC. In conducting its own foreign policy, Ukraine today, basing itself on political and economic factors, aspires to create a multi-polar system of international cooperation. This system should ensure the state's stable political and economic security on account of the broadening of international contacts. It should not only stimulate Ukrainian integration into the world community but also promote the increase of Ukrainian influence in different regions, the development of trade and internal productivity, and a search for prospective markets. The system of Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC) has been created for this purpose.
Present day relations with states of the Black Sea region within BSEC signify an important political precedent in the development of the regional system of security and cooperation.
At the same time regional states face problems and contradictions that have high conflict potential: Abkhazia, Karabakh, Chechnia, Bosnia, and even the Crimea. The formation of sub-regional security structures that would create a mutual base for cooperation is necessary in order to overcome these contradictions and to prevent the development of conflicts. The above-mentioned cooperation in this sphere would correspond to the interests of all regional states.
On June 25, 1992 in Istanbul, the Presidents of Azerbaijan, Armenia, Bulgaria, Georgia, Moldova, Romania, Turkey, Ukraine and the Heads of government of Albania, Greece and the RF adopted the Bosporus caucus and signed the Declaration creating BSEC. It provided for the creation of favorable conditions for trade, industry, transportation, communications, science and technology, energy and agriculture, tourism and ecology. The goal was to exchange economic information, to create conditions for business contacts, to determine branch projects, etc.
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According to plan, not only states of the Black Sea basin but also countries that have a direct interest in the Black Sea region can enter BSEC. BSEC is founded according to the principles of Helsinki's Final Act and subsequent documents, accepted on the highest level by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and, particularly, in the Paris Charter of a new Europe. The goal and principles established in the Declaration of BSEC completely correspond to the principles and main documents of the UN. The Declaration also emphasizes that membership in BSEC is not a barrier for participation in and cooperation with other regional and sub-regional organizations.
In geoeconomic terms, taking into account states that are involved in the BSEC system, this region is a sphere of gravitation of many countries that although not directly involved with the Black Sea basin, have substantial economic and transportation interests here. Iran, Macedonia, the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and Uzbekistan have put forward applications to join BSEC. Austria, Italy, Israel, Egypt, Slovakia, Tunisia and Poland participate in the organization in the role of observers; Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kazakhstan, Cyprus, Jordan, Slovenia and Croatia have handed in applications to become observers.
Thus, a geography is present here that does not limit itself to just the Black Sea region but envelops a broad area from the Balkans to Central Asia and from the Baltic to the Arabic states. This territory unites European, Asian and North African countries, regardless of the heterogeneity and level of development of their civilizations. BSEC is a potentially capacious internal market with significant resources and scientific-technical potential, and can become a key center of trade between Europe, the Middle East and Asia. In practical terms this means the creation of a trans-regional integrative formation. This is also the first large integrative state formation corresponding to the post-confrontational stage of development of the world economy, which is able to unite countries with different political and economic orientations.
The end of the 20th century is marked by changes in the political and economic structures of Europe. These changes have led to the creation of sub-regional structures from the Baltic to the Black seas, that in a certain way have promoted the dismantling of the " iron curtain". Countries with a similar " post-communist" state of the economy and of politics have united themselves in these structures for the purpose of further integrating themselves into the European environment.
At the same time, the ineffectiveness of the resolution of economic and political problems in the framework of the CIS impels Ukraine to search for parallel forms of economic cooperation. At the same time processes of regional economic integration have dominated the development of the world economy over the last several decades. They determine the directions and priorities of the current state of the internationalization of economic life, forming an environment of global competition and influencing the strategic interests of countries and regions across the entire world. Thus, the BSEC system is indicative of the modern tendency in international economic cooperation.
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The BSEC system could not have been formed in the time of global economic confrontation between the EC and the EEC, when the economy was more burdened with ideological and military factors rather than concerned with the pragmatic problems of the population. In the new circumstances, where states are faced with the task of economic and social modernization, the creation of new cooperatil systems is logically justified and corresponds to the core interests of regional countries.
The development of a system of Black Sea Economic Cooperation represents one of the important mechanisms for South-East European states achieving pan-European integration. It also fully corresponds to the national interests of Ukraine as Ukrainian integration into Europe has been established as the main strategic direction of its policy. In his speech during the " New Opportunities in the Black Sea Region" Conference (Istanbul, April 28, 1997), Ukrainian President L. D. Kuchma mentioned that the gradual augmentation of economic cooperation in the Black Sea region plays an important role not only in the resolution of problems of economic development of countries united by the BSEC idea, but to a great extent also promotes the intensification of general European integration. On the other hand, Ukraine's participation in various forms of European regional cooperation, in that number long-term and temporary sub-regional unions, in no way contradicts the economic interests of Ukraine as a member of BSEC.
The initiative to create a regional economic commonwealth belongs to Turkey. However, success in the actualization of this idea testifies to the interest of a large number of states in the formation of a new sub-regional structure of economic cooperation that unites Mediterranean, European and Asian countries, regardless of their political, social, and civilizational heterogeneity, the differences in their levels of development and their visions of the future. The region's countries are members of different political and economic state groups (NATO, the CIS, the EU etc. ). Peculiar and profound social and economic transformations caused by changes in mentality and in general modes of orientation of the population have occurred in these countries. Even ten years ago it would have been difficult to imagine them together in one organization. However, in the conditions of the new geopolitical situation the Ankara initiative has found the corresponding support of these states.
The Turkish project foresaw the modernization of the economies of member-states, which would give birth to a large market of countries with a population of over 330 million. Stress was to be placed on the development of an infrastructure that would help to make better use of the considerable scientific-technological potential present, to make more rational use of industrial and agricultural resources. On the other hand, BSEC also helped its members find additional opportunities for solving problems connected with the transition to free market relations.
The organization was created with the goal of integrating the Black Sea region into the world economy, in view of the principles of the market economy, democratic values, traditional links, geographical affinity and the complementary economies of states. The organization remains open to all interested states that recognize the principles of the BSEC Declaration. BSEC has provided for comprehensive multi- and bilateral cooperation in industry, agriculture, transportation, trade, communications, medicine, ecology, and tourism. Also supported have been free trade, private business, the free flow of capital, the creation of free economic zones, exchanges of new technologies, the real coordination of programs concerning protection of the Black Sea from pollution, the promotion of specific programs in the Black Sea zone of interest to BSEC.
The BSEC idea reflects the growing consciousness of the region's states of the particularities of their national and regional interests. It in no way competes with traditional regional economic structures. More accurately, what is taking place here is the creation of a complementary aspect of relations of different economic models. A new sphere of opportunity is being created, which would be difficult to recognize within old structures.
Thus, it is natural that in the search for new ways of realizing their national interests the new independent states have turned to the idea of strengthening economic cooperation with states of their nearest environment. In the Ukrainian, Moldovan and Caucasian cases this idea has found the most effective embodiment in the creation of BSEC. Newly emerged independent states have entered this system. It is their first attempt at organized integration without evident Russian domination, in contradistinction to the Economic Union based on the CIS. In addition, the participation of the RF as well as of the other former Soviet republics in BSEC will introduce certain peculiarities in the relations among its members.
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The theory and practice of economic integration of other states testifies to the fact that the future development of BSEC is connected with certain difficulties. The Black Sea is a patent geographical factor that promotes regional integration. In all other aspects BSEC can be looked at in terms of potential. Almost all key disintegrative factors are present in this region - ranging from the political instability of its members and the incompatibility of their economic infrastructures to obvious socio-cultural distinctions and deep traditional conflicts between them as well as inside some of them. BSEC's integrative policy has to develop in a hostile environment (interethnic tensions in Georgia, conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan, historical hostility between Turkey and Armenia, mutual mistrust between Greece and Turkey, tense relations between Russia and some BSEC states - the former republics of the USSR).
At the same time let us recall the hardships postwar Europe had to face in the mapping out of its own integrative model. Problems here were even more acute, however the desire for peace and mutual cooperation overcame and now a consolidated and developed European community exists. It is necessary to take this experience into account when developing a process for Black Sea cooperation.
BSEC as a potential zone of free trade presents opportunities for the coordination of foreign political priorities and serious economic contradictions of regional states. Coordinated export-import policy can ensure a certain balance of interests within the framework of main priorities, despite differences in the foreign economic policies of BSEC members. However, it is problematic to achieve this within BSEC. The functions of foreign trade regulation among member-states act on different levels: on the national - in Albania, Bulgaria, Romania, Turkey, Ukraine; on the supranational - in Greece (as a member of the EU) and in the future - in member-states of the CIS. In addition, BSEC states are characterized by different levels, time concerns and intensities of participation in GATT/WTO. Substantial contradistinctions among key parameters of the investment climate complicate the development and realization of mutual investment projects within BSEC.
The union has set for itself numerous tasks to be solved, in connection with which the development of informational interaction between states of the region is extremely fruitful. The process of transformation to an information society is characterized by the rapid growth of the informational services part of the GNP. Society becomes increasingly open to information, while the presence of global telecommunications networks provides an opportunity for the organization of the informational services industry with practically no account of borders. Great opportunities come into being for industrially backward states to stand in one row with the countries-giants.
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