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6. The Asian-Pacific Region
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The overall situation in the APR is characterized by contradictory processes of the regrouping in various forces in the period following the end of the Cold War and by the complex interactions of regional states that place economic interests and multilateral cooperation at the top of their list of strategies. In general, the national interests of APR states `surpass' regional aspirations for stability. Problems in the interactions of regional states remain, among them territorial issues. Strategic changes are connected to a significant extent with the growth of Chinese power, and also with fears surrounding the possible weakening of US military influence in the region.
American policy is aimed at the following: counteraction of those APR states that aspire toward regional leadership; the prevention of any conflicts that may arise; the determined suppression of the proliferation of nuclear weapons; the involvement of former Soviet countries in the world economy. The preservation of military unions with Japan, South Korea and the development of military connections with ASEAN states promote the resolution of these issues. Washington aspires to use the process of the formation of regional economic structures to promote its own interests.
US President Bill Clinton has stressed numerous times that American national security depends on its economic power and that from the perspective of the 21st century no region in the world is of greater importance for the US than the APR. Regional states represent the US's largest market, with 54% of American external trade going to this region.
From the American Administration's point of view, perspectives of economic development and USA security interests demand the long-term military presence in the APR. American armed forces in this region total 5. 6% of the general amount. It is planned to increase this proportion to 7. 1%, and also to provide the army with new types of weapons and military equipment.
American trade and economic relations with regional states have been developing. According to 1997, figures the amount of US-APR states trade approached one half a billion dollars. At the same time, it is worth mentioning that rates of growth in the amount of Europe-APR trade are greater (the absolute figures are still smaller: 220 million US dollars in 1996).
Chinese leaders regard the US as the world's sole superpower and their main foreign political adversary, however at the same time they aspire for multilevel economic cooperation with this state.
Beijing is attempting to capitalize on the changes in the global balance of power in order to stimulate Washington's interest in China's strategic importance, and to prompt the USA toward the improvement and further development of bilateral relations on a higher level.
Russia's main problem in the APR today is that it is difficult to compensate the inevitable decrease of its military presence in the Far East with an increase in economic interaction, and with political and other cooperation with APR states. It is important to mention that the de facto Russian military withdrawal from the region is assessed by APR states in various ways, as the resultant vacuum is filled by China (even Japan is attempting to participate more actively in this process).
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The growing importance of the economic compound corresponds to the general tendency of the formation of a regional security system in the APR. The creation of an economic community inside the region will promote security more due to individual states' interest in the prosperity of their economic partners rather than through military means.
Ukraine and China. The People's Republic of China is one of the world's universally recognized political and economic leaders, whose role and importance will in the future steadily increase in all spheres of international life. At the present stage China is Ukraine's most active partner in the Asian-Pacific region.
The priority position of the Chinese direction of our state's foreign policy is primarily determined by:
· important Chinese political and economic influence in the world and, first of all, in the APR;
· the PRC's possibilities to influence international events on global and regional scales;
· a certain congruence of both states' economies and technical standards;
· the attractiveness of the Chinese market for a wide assortment of domestic goods.
It is worth mentioning that China traditionally conducts a pragmatic foreign policy, using well-developed methods of balancing the contradictions of other states' interests. Recognizing the growing gap between well-developed states and developing ones, China strives to consolidate the so called " Third World" toward its stance, particularly those states that had earlier oriented themselves toward the Soviet Union.
The following factors promote China's increased interest in Ukraine:
· Ukraine's deliberate " non-bloc" foreign policy, which promotes our state's political presence in Europe and in the world;
· the permanent contradictions between the West and the East that force Beijing to search for European allies that are able to help decrease the level of conflict;
· an opportunity to coordinate actions in international organizations, in the UN particularly, in order to reach mutual foreign policy goals;
· Beijing's intention to keep " the Ukrainian card" at hand in its bilateral relations with Russia. Beijing regards the existence of a sovereign Ukraine as a barrier to the restoration of the Russian Empire, and also as an opportunity to exercise certain political pressure on Moscow;
· the opportunity for the effective use of Ukraine's considerable economic potential, primarily in such important branches as machine-building, the military-industrial complex, high technologies (particularly space technology), new materials, radiation security, etc.;
· the search for new markets for products of Chinese enterprises that do not yet find sufficient demand in economically developed states.
At present, China remains as one of Ukraine's largest external economic partners. We are objectively interested in the development of trade and economic cooperation with the PRC. Our interest is determined by the presence of a large Chinese market for machine-building, metallurgical and chemical industries, aviation, shipbuilding, etc.
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In its turn, China also regards Ukraine as a promising and important economic partner. Beijing bases its interest on the thesis of the complimentariness of Ukrainian and Chinese economic interests. This both provides the opportunity to fill the Ukrainian market with Chinese consumer goods and to use Ukrainian advanced technologies according to the needs of programs currently under development in China (rocket-space, aviation, marine, etc. ).
Beijing regards Ukraine as an important European state that does not aspire for regional domination or military strategic superiority. China plans to use its cooperation with Ukraine for the purpose of ensuring its economic and political penetration into the East and Central European region.
In its turn, in the process of the development of relations with the PRC, Ukraine observes the positions of the Communique on the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations (January 1992), the Joint Kyiv Declaration (September 1994) and the Beijing Declaration on the Intensification of Friendship and Cooperation (December 1995), which contain the basic principles of bilateral relations in the political, economic and cultural spheres.
The leaders of both states have on many occasions underlined the high level and the dynamic development of Ukraine-China relations, which are characterized by mutual trust. An example of this trust is Ukraine's support for the PRC's position in the UN's Committee on Human Rights in 1996. Despite the pressure of the US and of several EU states our country based the resolution of this issue on the interests of long-term Ukrainian-Chinese cooperation, which is in keeping with the national interests of the Ukrainian state.
The Chinese side is also grateful to Ukraine for its understanding and unwavering support of the " one China" principle and for its recognition of the PRC's government as the sole legal government of China.
It should be mentioned that we have had the opportunity to become convinced in Chinese government support of Ukraine. This especially concerns Chinese support of Ukrainian territorial integrity (the so called " Crimean issue" ) and the support of Ukrainian efforts in international organizations. In 1996 China supported the transfer of Ukraine from group " B" to group " C" in UN peacemaking operations, which significantly lessened the financial burden on our state.
Of principle significance is the granting by the People's Republic of China in December 1994 of assurances of Ukrainian nuclear security.
However, it is important to take notice of the recent dissatisfaction of both sides with the development of Ukraine-China trade, and economic, scientific and technical cooperation. The decrease in the amount of bilateral trade (according to Chinese figures, in 1994 - $837 million, in 1995 - $613 million, in 1996 - $556 million, in the first decade of 1997 - $105, 8 million) continues.
The high level of political interactions between the leadership of the two states, a well-grounded legal base, an atmosphere of mutual trust and the mutual gravitation of both nations toward each other, increasingly stand in contradiction of unrealized opportunities in mutually beneficial Ukrainian-Chinese cooperation in a number of areas. Today's realities are such that the development of cooperation is more declarative than real, while the profit from the existent exchange of goods between the two countries is obtained by third states that play the role of unnecessary go-betweens.
Ukrainian export to the PRC has a clearly defined semi-raw material character, in 1996 having the following scheme:
· metallurgical and metal-working goods - 66%;
· chemical goods (mineral fertilizers) - 28%.
Chinese export to Ukraine consists mainly of consumer goods products. Simple forms of trade with a considerable barter component (30-50%) dominate our economic relations today. Cooperation in the production of goods is practically absent.
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It should be mentioned that in recent years the PRC has significantly decreased its purchases abroad of goods such as rolled metal and chemical fertilizers, which are the basic compounds of Ukrainian export to the PRC. The tendency to decrease the import of Ukrainian metal production is predicted to continue. Directives of the ninth five-year plan of Chinese development are determined by the necessity for the prevention of the " overheating" of the economy by way of decreasing the amount of industrial construction (a decrease in the import of building construction metal goods, steel framework, rolled metal), an orientation toward the use of own means, maximal involvement of foreign investments and an undeclared ban on the export of capital abroad.
Thus, a further increase in the export of Ukrainian goods to the PRC can be expected only as a result of the increased export of machine-building goods and transportation services.
China is of a positive mind regarding the possibilities of Ukrainian machine-building possibilities, and has a number of times expressed its intentions to establish direct connections with Ukrainian enterprises, without Russian mediation, and to purchase hydro-energy equipment, electrical welding technologies, oil processing, metal working, machine-building, chemical goods, etc.
At the same time, it should be mentioned that China quite often limits its purchases to several types of high technology and advanced machine-building goods and know-how, using the tested practice of copying and developing its own output of these goods (among Ukrainian products this includes: Antonov aircraft, programmed machine tools, railway cars, military technology, etc. ).
According to Chinese analysts, goods made by Ukrainian enterprises on the basis of unpatented advanced " know-how" technologies enjoy considerable demand. There is also interest in achievements in the branch of supersolid and composite materials, in electric welding and in powder metallurgy. The possibility of obtaining the achievements of Ukrainian scientists constitutes perhaps the main safety valve for China not to shut down economic relations with Ukraine.
At the same time it should be mentioned that the reserves for bilateral cooperation lie in the so-called " sensitive branches" - rocket-space, aircraft, shipbuilding, new materials, high technologies, in branches of double use, and military-technical cooperation (MTC). The development of Ukrainian-Chinese cooperation precisely in these directions evokes great opposition from interested third-party states, which make use of all possibilities to limit or to prevent the implementation of agreements on cooperation in these spheres, reached on the highest level.
In general, strategy in the development of trade and economic relations between Ukraine and the PRC should be built in a way as to ensure their high economic effectiveness as well as to affect the realization of the interests of Ukrainian enterprises of all forms of ownership on the Chinese goods market.
Today we have real chances to improve the quality and quantity of mutually beneficial, wide-scale cooperation with China, which should be based on the bilateral enhancement of economic structures corresponding to the national interests of both states.
Ukraine and Japan. In the preceding years Japanese foreign political strategy has undergone substantial changes. The complication of relations with European states and with the United States has led to a reconsideration of the priorities of the Japanese economy and of Japanese diplomacy.
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A paradox, which came into form long ago and to this day remains beyond the attention of researchers - political scientists, is worth noting: namely, that Japan's position as a subject of international relations in the diplomatic realm remains totally disproportionate to its status as one of the world's most economically developed states. The existent situation in no way satisfies Japan, which in the future will apply increasing efforts to augment its political weight in the international community.
This goal has dictated Japan's diplomatic attempts to gain a permanent place on the Security Council of the UN. At present this is the leading goal of Japan's diplomatic machinery. It has possibly determined Japanese concessions during recent Japan-Russia negotiations concerning the signing of a peace treaty. Japan backed away from the contention that only the return of the southern part of the Kuril islands can act as a basis for the development and later signing of a peace treaty between Japan and Russia. It can be assumed that in return Japan obtained certain Russian promises, if not guarantees, in support of the Japanese position in the UN Security Council. Russian approaches of influencing Chinese positions were also possibly discussed, as today China is undoubtedly the leading opponent of Japanese participation in the Security Council.
For this reason the present historical period can be regarded as being the most favorable for the activation of Ukrainian-Japanese relations. This fact gains increased importance considering Ukraine's position as one of the founders of the UN. The following diplomatic nuance is also worth heeding: as part of the USSR Ukraine waged war against Japan and to this day does not have a peace treaty with Japan (by the way, the Soviet Army initiated combat actions despite an existent agreement of neutrality).
In the economic realm, Japanese policy is experiencing significant adjustment that is closely linked to politics. In order to highlight this situation it is necessary to turn to the general economic situation in the Asian-Pacific region.
Currently ever more political scientists are rejecting the thesis of the " East-West" and " South-North" confrontation. This is for good reason, as despite their recent formation, new global economic and trade regions have quickly gained new territory and capital and have significantly influenced and at times pressured their traditional analogs. One of the leading such regions is the Asian-Pacific region.
It should be mentioned that the last economic crisis that befell the leading industrial countries of the region and which, according to economic experts may continue in Japan, is regarded in some APR states to be artificially provoked by western countries. This version of the development of events has its adherents in Europe as well as in the US. After a detailed analysis, this idea does not seem overly whimsical.
Under these conditions Japan has to take measures in order to reduce the effects of a possible economic crisis. This leads, first of all, to a search for alternative sources of raw materials and alternative partners in shared production. Ukraine should make use of this situation. It is significant that the only serious investment proposal over the last period came from one of Japan's most powerful concerns, " Mitsui". By the way, the Japanese government had begun this kind of economic policy long ago. Japan invests immense costs in the economies of South-Eastern Asian states, China and even in North Korea (although this is done in a secret and very complicated way). In this manner Japan, first, broadens and, in case of crisis, ensures alternate positions for its economic machinery, and second, strengthens its regional political weight, seriously damaged during World War II.
All of the above-mentioned is conducive for providing very favorable conditions for economic cooperation between Ukraine and Japan. However, it should be mentioned that Japanese economic partnership is possible only in the conditions of a modern and effective legal base, similar at least to the Chinese or Vietnamese.
Ukraine and Korea. The situation on the Korean peninsula has recently been characterized by economic and political crises, which the region's leaders have ably managed to resolve. Economic crisis has marked the North as well as the South. Famine in the North was caused by bad weather conditions and economic miscalculations by the country's leadership. The crisis in the South, according to Korean experts, was provoked by western states. However, official Seoul has not declared this thesis. Both parts of the Korean peninsula are overcoming these crises with the help of the international community. It is interesting that on this occasion neither the KPDR nor the Korean Republic have used these crises in propagandistic campaigns against each other. Quite the opposite has occurred, as South Korea has provided significant aid to the North. In its turn the KPDR has made political concessions by allowing ships laden with humanitarian aid to enter North Korean ports under the banner of the Korean Republic. The KPDR has also officially announced that it will promote searches for members of separated families.
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All of the above-mentioned obviously illustrates the future of an inter-Korean dialog. Governments of both states of the Korean peninsula have announced the unification of the country to be one of their political priorities. By the way, this fact has allowed for the quiet rule of Kim Chen Ir, which came into being after the death of KPDR leader Kim Ir Sen in the summer 1994. President Kim Te Chjun of the Korean Republic also used the issue of a peaceful unification of the country as one of his pre-electoral arguments.
In the formation of a foreign political conception concerning the Korean peninsula, Ukraine needs to consider relations between its parts. It is necessary to constantly underline support for the policy of a peaceful unification of Korea. It is worth remembering that criticism of the government of the KPDR is frequently considered by South Korea as constituting intervention in the domestic affairs of the Korean nation.
In discussing the crisis in the Korean Republic it is necessary to stress that in contradistinction to former similar cases, it has not caused serious political disturbances. Korean economic experts had predicted this development of events and took measures to soften the blow in the general economic situation. Aid provided by the IMF also had a significant influence. However, all of the above-mentioned events will force South Korea to search for new possibilities for its own economic activity. These should come in the form of alternatives to existent markets, investment projects, and new economic partners. Ukraine should benefit from this. We already have positive results in the example of the " AutoZAZ-DAEWOO" project (the foreseen economic crisis possibly caused Korean businessmen to become interested in the quick realization of this project).
APR states as potential Ukrainian trade and economic partners. Ukrainian integration into the system of the international division of labor, including the APR, is one of the most important assignments in overcoming the current economic crisis and in the further development of Ukraine's economy. Autarchy, the practical isolation of the Ukrainian economy from already formed international markets of goods, services, capital and technologies in the APR, remains to be a serious barrier.
The current, mainly raw or semi-raw material feature of Ukrainian export to the APR cannot bring impressive results, because of the decreasing weight of trade in these materials and traditional goods, and, at the same time, the growing weight of trade in services and technologies.
It is also important to stress that a majority of states, especially Japan, have already ensured their supply of strategic resources in the region. This has occurred as a result of the intensification in the extraction of minerals in little explored regions of Australia, Canada, Alaska, and individual South-Eastern states. At the same time the US, Japan and South Korea have established a course toward the diversification of sources of strategic raw materials supply, including energy carriers, in order to guarantee the safe development of their national economies.
Thus, Japan enjoys a stable delivery of coal from Australia, Canada, China, Indonesia, New Zealand and other APR states. Australia is gradually developing into a " Japanese quarry" by virtue of annually exporting 180 million tons of coal and 75 million tons of ore.
ASEAN states - Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia - produce 43% of the world's tin. China is also a great tin producer. About 60% of the copper and concentrated copper extracted from China's deposits is exported to the SEA states. China leads world positions in the export of tungsten. About 80% of world reserves of rare-soil compounds also belong to China. Japan covers one third of its demand in this type of raw material on account of its import from the PRC.
Companies situated in ASEAN states account for one half of Japan's import of aluminum, oil, and ore concentrates, and these countries in essence have became " barriers to ecological purification". Due to this fact Japanese companies save inevitable expenditures involved in the protection of the environment. Japanese needs in wood are almost wholly satisfied on account of APR states.
According to forecasts of the Japanese Center of Scholarly Research on Economic problems, the growing gap between the level of development of Pacific states and of other world regions will further increase. The amount of the external trade turnover of APR states has already exceeded $500 billion annually.
Foreign investments also play a significant role in the economic development of APR states. The creation of a favorable climate for involving foreign investments from Japan, South Korea and China has to precede possible Ukrainian involvement in the international division of labor in the APR.
In order to make a successful entry into the trade and economic space of the APR Ukraine must create a market economy, restructure industry and renew its basic reserves. The protection of the domestic producer is necessary in order to prevent his bankruptcy in the conditions of the flow of goods from APR states. The problem of increasing the quality and decreasing the production expenditures and prices of Ukrainian goods for the purposes of making them competitive in APR markets will inevitably arise.
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