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7. Other Important States and Regions
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7. Other Important States and Regions
As it has already been underlined, three leading world regional centers will dominate economic space in the future. These are: American space; European space; and Pacific space, the zone of " new prosperity" that in its turn will consist of several competitive centers - Tokyo, Beijing, Taiwan, Seoul, Singapore, etc. However, the picture could be more complicated. Indications are that in the 21st century China, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, Thailand, and others will join the number of world giants together with the US and Japan, who will lose their dominant positions. New powerful groupings, apart from the APR, will emerge in Latin America and in Africa (the South African Republic).
The practice of Ukrainian foreign policy in Latin America should be fundamentally reviewed. The sad experience of Ukrainian participation (or more accurately, the failure of attempts at participation) in international gas pipeline tenders on the development of corresponding complexes in Bolivia and Brazil should be thoroughly analyzed. The situation where up to 80% of Ukrainian exports to Latin American states (particularly, to Mexico) go through Russian mediation that receives enormous profits and presents these goods as Russian ones, while the Ukrainian Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Economic Relations and Trade do not notice this fact or acts as if it does not, is unacceptable. A similar situation can be observed in many African countries. Great opportunities of political and economic potential in the African region should be effectively made use of.
The SAR is a key country in the South of Africa. Ukraine has enormous possibilities in making a breakthrough on the SAR market. Among the priorities of potential Ukrainian exports to the SAR are metal wares, products of shipbuilding, and aviation industries. Ukraine is interested in supplying the SAR with high technology products and has good opportunities in the sphere of military technical cooperation.
Ukraine should thoroughly support and promote its economic (military-economic inclusive) and political presence in these regions, actively vying for " new economic niches" on world markets, the more so as in distinction to Russia it does not have a long trail of imperialistic and geopolitical ambitions. At the same time Ukrainian policy in these regions is far from being optimal.
IV. Alternative Scenarios for the Future of Ukraine
The carried out analysis of Ukrainian and major world powers' national interests and priorities, and of the regional peculiarities of Ukrainian geopolitical strategy allows for a procession to the construction of basic scenarios for Ukraine's future in the context of key external and internal factors of development. A scenario, according to the classical definitions of H. Kahn and O. Helmer, is a non-formalized multi-alternative forecast that describes the most probable, hypothetical succession of future events and defines the way in which the future state of the socioeconomic system emerges step-by-step from its existent state. (Kahn, H., Weiner, A., The Year 2000. New York, 1967. Fowles, J., Ed. A Handbook of Future Research, New York, 1979. )
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One of the modifications of morphological analysis, the so-called method of morphological tables, is used in this analytical study in order to " generate" possible scenarios for the future. (Honcharenko O. M., " Alternative Scenarios as a Form of Analysis of Socio-Economic and Socio-Ecological Development", in: " Comprehensive Forecasting in the System " Society-Environment". Kyiv: Naukova Dumka, 1986).
The main stages in the construction of a morphological table and in the selection and evaluation of scenarios were the following:
1. A preliminary description and analysis of the system under study - in our case, Ukraine in the context of internal and external parameters of development, and of basic national interests and goals.
2. A selection of classification criteria as a basis for the decomposition of a system.
3. A definition of functionally important classification criteria and their integration into the morphological table.
4. A consistent analysis of all possible alternatives to the system's condition.
5. A selection of the most probable meanings of classification criteria as a basis for the synthesis of alternative scenarios of development.
6. A non-formalized description of selected alternative scenarios of development. 7. An evaluation of the probability of selected scenarios of development with the use of expert procedures.
The following were selected as main classification criteria:
1. The state of " East-West" relations. Basic functional meanings include:
· The worsening of " East-West" relations.
· The continuation of a current state of " East-West" relations.
· An Improvement in " East-West" relations. The beginning of the formation of a New World Order (NWO).
2. The state of Ukraine-Russia relations and Ukraine's dominant geopolitical orientations. Basic functional meanings include:
· The worsening of relations with the RF, growing economic contradictions.
· Rapprochement with the RF, the loss of economic sovereignty and the formation of confederate relations.
· A dominant orientation toward the RF together with the preservation of political and economic sovereignty:
a)under the conditions of slow reforms and absence of western investments;
b)under administrative reforms and weak cooperation with the West.
· A dominant westward orientation, the establishment of equal economic and political relations with the RF.
3. Ukraine's domestic situation. Basic functional meanings include:
· A continuation of the present day tendencies in the systemic economic crisis.
· The termination of the progressive economic downfall in the absence of observed reforms and evident growth.
· Irresolute reforms, slow stabilization of the economy and weak growth.
· Successive administrative reforms and moderate growth.
· Radical reforms based on democratic principles and rapid growth.
Selected classification criteria and their main functional meanings are not critical. Their number can be increased, however in the case where the number of scenarios quickly grows, the crucial differences among them become less important.
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The results of the integration of classification criteria in the morphological table are represented in table 1.
The most probable scenarios in the table are marked by indexed letters. A non-formalized description of selected scenarios can be represented in the following way.
Scenario A1 - " Free Fall"
The continuation of present day indecisive policy and confrontation between legislative and executive branches of power. An intensification of the crisis in state management. Social disturbances and regional conflicts. Involvement of Ukraine's closest neighbors from the CIS and CE in these conflicts. A widening split in society. The beginning of social disturbances and ethnic conflicts, their support by segments of the Military Establishment. The possibility of the eruption of civil war.
Scenario B3 - " The Belarus' Option"
Slow reforms with open doors to infiltration by Russian capital and informational-cultural penetration. A progressive loss of economic sovereignty. Confederation with Russia. Entry into the Tashkent Pact and the Inter-Parliamentary Assembly of the CIS. Slow development as a Russian semi-colony.
Scenario C2 - " Marking Time"
Reforms commence but radical economic changes are absent, confrontation between legislative and executive branches continues. Arbitrary bureaucratic rule and the reign of shadow capital continues. The end of permanent stagnation. Slow economic development, with significant lagging behind CE and even CIS states.
Scenarios of Group D (D3, D4) foresee the introduction of administrative reforms (" from above" ) and successive activity in the consolidation of society and the stabilization of the economy under conditions of a preferential geopolitical orientation toward Russia.
The difference among group D scenarios is in depth and the level of reforms stimulation and, as a result, in their effectiveness and rates of economic growth.
Scenario D3 - " Euro-Asian Model 1"
Desperate, however, chaotic efforts of executive and legislative powers to stabilize society, to enforce law and order, to stimulate administrative reforms. However, stabilizing processes proceed very slowly as a result of indecisive actions and the absence of consensus between legislative and executive branches. Investment activity and the flow of Russian capital is insufficient to ensure visible economic growth.
Scenario D4 - " Euro-Asian model 2"
Resolute government action to enforce order in the state, to consolidate society and to stabilize the financial-monetary system (even under the conditions of deviation from certain democratic principles).
Consecutive administrative stimulation of reforms simultaneously with the reconstruction and cutting of bureaucratic and budget structures. The flow of Russian investments and a scarcity of western investments. As a result, moderate economic growth in conditions of dependence on the rates of economic growth in the development of the general situation in Russia.
Scenarios of Group E (E4, E5). These scenarios foresee the introduction of radical reforms under the conditions of preferential western geopolitical Table 1.
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